Thursday, June 07, 2012
11 Reasons I'LL Have Another won't win the Triple Crown
There is a lot of talk about the number 11 going into the 2012 Belmont Stakes. Numerology fans rooting for I'll Have Another's bid for the Triple Crown point out that there have been 11 Triple Crown Winners, 11 horses have failed in the final leg at Belmont Stakes since Affirmed won the TC, and now I'll Have Another is in the 11 hole for the Belmont.
With that in mind here is 11 reasons why I'll Have Another will not be a Triple Crown horse:
1. Gallops only since the Preakness, no official workouts.
2 He really looked at the end of his tether going 1 1/4 in Kentucky Derby effort
3. Early pace will be strong enough to soften up I'll Have Another
4. Looks like a horse that will be decelerating last 1/8th a mile in a race where others (like Dullahan) will be accelerating
5. He's had 2 near perfect trips at Derby and Belmont-think he really get another?
6. Enough Bad Karma around Horses Connections to screw it up (i.e. Big Brown Factor)
7. Rookie Jockey
8. Big enough field for race riding against I'll have Another to be a factor
9. Great horses win the Triple Crown, not very good horses
10. If he loses, that eliminates all the "what will this win do for the game" articles. Enough of a reason alone for him to lose
11. The most important # is 11 and there are 11 other horse in the race and one of them will be the winner
UPDATE: I'LL Have Another was scratched on Friday with a Tendon Injury to his left front leg