11 Reasons I'LL Have Another won't win the Triple Crown

There is a lot of talk about the number 11 going into the 2012 Belmont Stakes. Numerology fans rooting for I'll Have Another's bid for the Triple Crown point out that there have been 11 Triple Crown Winners, 11 horses have failed in the final leg at Belmont Stakes since Affirmed won the TC, and now I'll Have Another is in the 11 hole for the Belmont.

With that in mind here is 11 reasons why I'll Have Another will not be a Triple Crown horse:

1. Gallops only since the Preakness, no official workouts.

2 He really looked at the end of his tether going 1 1/4 in Kentucky Derby effort

3. Early pace will be strong enough to soften up I'll Have Another

4. Looks like a horse that will be decelerating last 1/8th a mile in a race where others (like Dullahan) will be accelerating

5. He's had 2 near perfect trips at Derby and Belmont-think he really get another?

6. Enough Bad Karma around Horses Connections to screw it up (i.e. Big Brown Factor)

7. Rookie Jockey

8. Big enough field for race riding against I'll have Another to be a factor

9. Great horses win the Triple Crown, not very good horses

10. If he loses, that eliminates all the "what will this win do for the game" articles. Enough of a reason alone for him to lose

11. The most important # is 11 and there are 11 other horse in the race and one of them will be the winner

UPDATE: I'LL Have Another was scratched on Friday with a Tendon Injury to his left front leg

At the Park for the 2010 Belmont Stakes

Yours truly was on hand at Belmont Park for the Belmont Stakes, extending my streak of consecutive Belmont Stakes attended at 7 (I missed the Funny Cide failed Triple Crown attempt in ’03 due to a wedding thrown by someone who can’t read a racing schedule).

Despite a pretty hot and humid day the crowd appeared to be in good spirits and happy to at the big Park for the day. It was real hot walking around the Paddock area, but after the Big Brown Humidity-Toilet Fiasco of 2008 all future Belmont Stakes will feel comfortable to me.

The crowd was announced at 45,243. I always wonder about these numbers and whether they are accurate or not. Before I heard the announced #, I calculated in my head what I thought the right number was by comparing the crowd I saw in the seats and out in the backyard area to last years # of 52,186. I came up with about 48,000 so the 45,243 figure is probably right. This years crowd did not appear to be to be that much lower than last years crowd.

After meeting up with Geno of EquiSpace fame at the Paddock, I returned to the Clubhouse to prepare my pick 6 ticket with 2 others in our group. We rolled through the first 3 races before Champagne d’Oro hit at 39-1 in the Acorn. All my worries about leaving Tanda off the ticket was for naught once Champagne whoever crossed the line and crashed our Pick 4 ticket also.

I’ve read criticism elsewhere of Jasmine Villegas’ version of “Empire State of Mind” sung live before the big race. Hate to pile on the young singer, but it sucked. While I didn’t join the fray I can confirm about half the crowd in my section of the clubhouse were booing as the song played.

As for the big race, I loved Fly Down and First Dude and had both in a bunch of exactas and Tri’s but Drosselmeyer was nowhere to be found on any of my tickets. Don’t know what to think about this year’s 3 year old crop-lets see how the Haskell and Travers shakes out.

The Starting Gate being driven onto the dirt track before the Belmont Stakes:


Photo credit: Me

Belmont Stakes Facts & Figures

---Beware betting Mine That Bird-The Belmont Stakes is not a race where the favorite fares well, especially in the last 2 decades.

---In the 1990's only 2 favorites finished 1st-A.P. Indy in 1992 and Thunder Gulch in 1995. Favorites failing to get the win included Unbridled (4th in '90); Strike the Gold (2nd in '91) and Real Quiet (2nd in '98)

---In this decade only 2 favorites won the race--Point Given in 2001 and Afleet Alex in 2005. Notable disappointments include War Emblem (8th in '02),Funny Cide (3rd in '03), Smarty Jones (2nd in '04), Curlin (2nd in '07) and Big Brown (DNF in '08)

---Despite stories about declining on track handle the 2 biggest on track handles for the Belmont were in this decade in '04 ($14,461,402) and '08 ($13,233,071)

---Likewise for attendance-The 4 highest Attendance totals are all in this decade ('04,'02,03,08) with the record being 120,139 in '04 when Mine That Bird's Daddy Birdstone upset Smarty Jones.

In the "for what it's what department" here is my betting thoughts: I see a slow paced race which I don't think will do Mine That Bird any favors. I see MTB making his customary one move late run, but I wonder if the long stretch will be just a tad too long for MTB. I would leave him in my exotics, just not sure he will get up for the win. My main bet will be a 4 horse Trifecta box of Mine That Bird, Charitable Man, Dunkirk and Summer Bird.

Good luck to all-I will be at Beautiful Belmont Park all day tomorrow for the big day. If you want to say hi, I will be the confused looking guy studying the racing program mulling about in the Grandstand area.

Dunkirk gets Early Mainstream Media Spotlight

So far in the early Derby Trail Race, it seems like Dunkirk, unraced as a 2 year old, is grabbing the most mainstream media focus. The Todd Pletcher trained horse, going this Saturday in the Florida Derby is featured today in a NY Times article written by Bill Finley. Yesterday The Albany based Times Union paper had a article on Dunkirk written by Tim Wilkin.

It seems that of late, these lightly raced horses grab the attention of everybody, probably because of the intrigue factor, i.e. how good could this horse be? 2 years ago it was Curlin (unraced as a 2 year old), last year Big Brown (only 2 races before the Florida Derby-but he did race as a 2 year old).

Dunkirk will have his hands full with a competitive field including Quality Road, Theregoesjojo and Patena. I am also eager to see how Danger to Society, trained by Rick Dutrow fares.

Reminder to all fellow Run to the Roses players-check your active horses. I blew it last time Stardom Bound ran, forgetting to activate her and losing those points. These Saturdays sneak up on you. You can check out the Road to the Roses Tab on the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance Homepage to see the entire schedule of Derby Preps with a list of whose running.

What could have been

To all those who doubt the injury, here is the photo, courtesy of the Daily Racing Form:



Big Brown---8 Starts, 7 wins.

One bad race-The Bizarre Belmont Stakes.

Now look at the other races and show me what Big Brown ever did wrong.

It is so easy to bash Dutrow, certainly arrogant and loud at times, but what exactly did he do wrong in training Big Brown?

What do the other trainers and barns use on their horses that is so different than what Dutrow uses? Illegal drugs, you allege? Very easy to cast allegations, I say not fair.

Remember Big Brown was not originally trained by Dutrow and he looked pretty good then when trained by Pat Reynolds.

If you had the chance to ever see Big Brown in person you knew what an athlete this horse was. Big Brown was an athlete, a true competitor, and a 4 time Grade 1 champion.

Was Big Brown truly a great horse? I am not sure we had enough on the resume to conclude. I did want to see more from Big Brown to see if he was truly a "great" horse. I do believe Curlin would have beat him had they met up in the Breeders Cup Classic, but I bet Big Brown would have showed up, dug in and competed.

Time to give the horse his due

The Associated Press describes the Big Brown win as a

..courageous front-running victory over older horses in the $500,000 Monmouth Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park.

I would agree. I was very impressed with Big Brown's win and the horse showed me he loves to compete and wants to win. A great horse should rise up and show us that he "wants to win" and I think Big Brown showed that yesterday. He showed me he can be the Horse of the Year, and I feel now Curlin would have to beat him in the BC Classic to take it away from him.

Remember this is a horse who got bashed after Belmont (okay maybe it was his trainer and owners-but still). Many said he would never step foot on a racetrack again. Well, he has stepped on a race track and is 2-0 since than. Watch this race again and tell me you are not impressed.

Mad Dog on Big Brown

On Monday 9/15/08 Chris "Mad Dog" Russo starts his daily sports talk show on SiriusXM satellite radio from 2-7 pm. If you are looking for talk on horse racing you will not find it on his show (stick with Steve Byk, heard weekdays on Sirius on Ch. 126). Mad Dog was part of the highly popular "Mike and the Mad Dog" show on WFAN radio in New York. Former partner Mike Franscesca is a huge horse racing fan, and he also owns his own horses and is partners with other horse owners including his Pal and Part time Saratoga Resident Bill Parcells. Mad dog was never a fan of horse racing and friction was always present whenever Mike Francesca tried to shoe horn in talk of horse racing on the show.

How ironic however when Mad Dog's prediction/hope of Big Brown's chance of failing in the Belmont came true. With Big Brown running Saturday in the Monmouth Stakes lets flash back to Mad Dog's rant against Big Brown after he won the 1st 2 legs of the Triple Crown.

Big Brown Talk

A google search for "Big Brown and Curlin" brings up 256,000 different results.

They are also both mentioned almost daily in the various horse racing publications generally read by those who follow the sport.

The subject has many interesting angles-will one or the other or both run in the BC Classic?, will Big Brown perhaps run in the BC Turf?, Will Curlin skip the classic and just go overseas?, will a Match race be set up between the two horses? and on and on.

In the blogosphere and elsewhere, many state they are tired of the whole thing, won't go to see Big Brown Run, aren't interested in Big Brown and can't wait to see Big Brown retire etc.

But I wonder if this is entirely true. Big Brown drew a nice crowd at the Haskell and will probably draw a nice crowd this Saturday for the Monmouth Stakes. Curlin has been less controversial and attendance figures for his races have not been as impressive, but you can bet if they were to meet in a Match Race, many eyes would be at the races and glued to the TV Set.

Looking at the Sports end of this game Big Brown does keep the Sport interesting and even relevant. Sports always need Villian's and the somewhat unlikeable handlers of Big Brown fit the bill. Throw in a bizarre run in the Belmont Stakes, mix in some crazy Rick Dutrow quotes and you have a story people will read about and watch.

More Curlin and Big Brown back and forth

The Soap Opera continues.

Curlin owner Jess Jackson challenges Big Brown to run in the Woodward at the Spa on August 30th, promising he would donate $50,000 from the Jackson Curlin for Kids Fund to the non-profit Belmont Child Care Association if Big Brown came to the race.

Of course, to the surprise of no one, Michael Ivarone of IEAH says no with a comment that the offer was "sad"

After snubbing NYRA's summer meet including the Travers and Woodward, Ivarone now waits for NYRA to bend over and set up a mid September turf race for his horse.

Crazy.

Dark Day Notes

Dark Day Notes-8/05/08

- Speculation continues on Big Brown and where he will run (or if) next.

-If Curlin runs the Woodward will the Big Brown crew take a shot and run?

-Day one of the Fasig-Tipton Preferred Yearling Sales is complete. See sales results here.

-A very worthwile Charity Benefit sponsored by Horse Society takes place Tuesday 8/5/08 at Saratoga Trackside Favorite Siro's Restaurant to benefit Old Friends, a retirement facility for Kentucky Thorougbreds. The good thing about this event is that you get in for only 30 bucks and all of your 30 bucks will go directly to the good folks at Old Friends. The event kicks off at 6 pm with drink specials, complimentary food , music, an auction and other fun stuff.

--Mary Lou Whitney owned horse Ninth Client, a 2 year old maiden, an ode to Former New York State Luv Gov Spitzer, won the 5th at Saratoga in a dead heat to appropriately (you can't make this stuff up) named Skipadate. It must have been theme day as Paradise Playgirl won the 4th and Under Serviced won the 3rd.

Monmouth biggest winner on Big Brown's Haskell Win

Was Big Brown's win in the Haskell at Monmouth a good win or not?

Like many others I was rooting for him to lose. I am sick of the whole IEAH/Dutrow/Kent back and forth. But despite all that, like many others, I did watch the race today (Thank you who ever invented the DVR). For me it is a good win-the splits were good, the final time was good and he was able to run down Coal Play when it counted. Is he the Super Horse that many described him as before the Belmont? To me, no way, but he did win a Grade 1 race and a win is a win is a win. If he failed to catch Coal Play everyone would be saying he sucked, but he did catch him, so he deserves credit.

The #'s on attendance and handle were winners for Monmouth, especially compared with a so far soft Delmar and Saratoga meet attendance wise. Alot of people came out to Monmouth and this shows me that that people will come out to watch a Horse they know by name and are familiar with, even if they dislike the Handlers connected with the Horse. The Haskell drew record wagering of $4,257,409, with a single-day record total handle of $17,642,954. Attendance was a very nice at 45,312. Don't forget the people who watched it on TVG, ESPN Classic or DVR/TIVO'd it for later watching. Could you imagine how much BB would increase Travers Day handle and attendance @ Saratoga if he ran? What if he runs at Suffolk Downs in the Mass. Handicap or Philly Park in the Pennsylvania Derby? You think those two second tier tracks would not love to have BB run and fill the stands up?

People love to go too sporting events to see stars, even if they can't stand the handlers surrounding the star or even the star himself. Look at all the talk about Manny Ramirez this week-love him or hate him- the man sells tickets. I know I have started flipping on ESPN Sportscenter late @ night to check out how Manny is doing out west.Horse racing is no different than any other sport. Give us an exciting athlete we know, with a story to follow, good or bad, and we will come out.

Wait, I got it...it was a loose shoe.

Excuses given by the Big Brown owners and trainer Rick Dutrow Jr as to Big Brown's failings in the Belmont:

1. Nothing-the horse was fine
2. Wait, we changed our mind- it was The bad ride of his Jockey
3. No wait-The condition of the Track surface-it was too deep
4. and this too- it was The Hot weather
5. No wait- how about The Starter
6. No wait-it was....The Loose Shoe!!

The owners and trainer's would also like to give their first (and hopefully only) excuse for skipping the Travers to run in the Haskell at Monmouth: Even though we told you before the Belmont we would next run in the Travers, we now will not, because we just found out that it gets hot in August in Saratoga. Had we known this piece of information before the Belmont we would have honestly never had said we would run the Travers...honest...we think...at least for now.

Big Brown to duck the Travers-will run in the Haskell

Michael Ivarone of IEAH annouced today that Big Brown will run in the Haskell at Monmouth Park on August 3rd and skip the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on August 23rd. According to quotes of Ivarone in the Daily Racing Form, Ivarone feels it will be less hot and humid at Monmouth than the Spa in August. It is also a tighter race track which should be more to the liking of Big Brown. Ivarone after the Belmont was critical of the Belmont dirt surface and no doubt has litte faith in NYRA to give him a favorable track up at the Spa. He will get that at Monmouth plus an additional $50,000 to the owners and $50,000 to Dutrow as bonus money from Monmouth officials as Big Brown won 2 Triple Crown Races. That money would not be given to run in the Travers. So, for you east coast fans of Big Brown you will have to travel to the Shore this summer to see Big Brown as he won't be at the Spa. After that it is possibly off to the West Coast for the Breeders Cup and than bye bye Big Brown.

Dutrow blames Kent

Well, the finger pointing has begun. Trainer Rick Dutrow has wasted no time blaming Kent Desormeaux for the ride on Big Brown. He also did not like that Kent pulled him up on the final turn, claiming Big Brown was not sore, so why pull him up. I have to agree. Unless Kent truly felt his horse was injured(and then he should jump off and help the horse immediately..i.e. like Prado did with Barbaro ) why not just ease him up a bit, forget the whip but continue to run through the finish line, finishing last or next to last. I don't get it. This does not look good for Kent, especially since he has been criticized in the Press and in the blogosphere for pulling up horses in the past if they are not in the money.

I had a great vantage point from my seat in section 3N in the Grandstand and I can tell you Big Brown was absolutely through on the final turn and would not have finished in the top 5, but he still should have run through the finish line, even if he had to gallop.

Ivarone says Big Brown will run after Belmont

Good news for for fans who hope Big Brown will continue to run. Much criticized Michael Ivarone, co-president of IEAH Stables said today: "We’re definitely going to point him for the Breeders’ Cup Classic." While there are many doubters out there who believe he will retire after the Belmont, assuming he is healthy my bet is he will run in the Breeders Cup. He will need to run a prep before this and the Travers on August 23rd, 2008 would be the perfect Grade 1 prep for the Classic. Racing fans will be aching for this horse to continue to run if he wins the Triple Crown, and I think is handlers will love the attention Big Brown will get if he runs the Travers up at the Spa and then tries the Classic and a possible duel with Curlin.

Will it be the best thing in the Sport for Big Brown to win?

I have been talking with many serious and casual race fans about Big Brown and his quest for the Triple Crown. The question is, will winning the Triple Crown be good for the sport? I ask this because when I talk to people it seems to be a 60/40 split that it will be good for the sport. The 60% in favor think it is great, can't wait for the Belmont, and believe racing needs a Triple Crown winner. The 40% who don't seem to base this on a dislike for Big Brown's Trainer Rich Dutrow and his often cocky comments as well as a dislike for his ownership IEAH. These people are actively rooting for Big Brown to lose because of his handlers. As the race approaches, I find myself torn. I do not care for Dutrow or IEAH, but I also realize that the Triple Crown would be great for the Sport. I was living in New York City as a child and became interested in the sport when Secretariat, Affirmed and Seattle Slew whon the Triple Crown in 73, 77 and 78. The excitement was electric and it drew me in.

I think the Triple Crown can do that again, draw more casual fans into the sport. Of course, I believe Big Brown will race only 2 more times, (The Travers and the Breeders Cup) and then he will be gone. Where will the casual fans go then? With so many great 3 year olds, like Bernardini, Street Sense, Smarty Jones, retiring early , how do we keep the casual fan in the game. Hard to answer, but the Triple Crown is a start and if it gets people talking about the sport, it will only help this sport. I am in it for life, so for me I am a fan whether Big Brown wins or not. Part of me, because of my feelings on Dutrow and IEAH will be rooting for Big Brown to lose, but as I stand in the Big Grandstand at Belmont this coming Saturday I will be probably rooting for Big Brown to win. My home county, Saratoga, is already buzzing about Big Brown running up at the Spa, and someone who spends all 36 racing days at the Spa, I can tell you there will be a uptick in attendance not only on Travers day but other days if Big Brown wins. Big Brown, with his NY connections will help the NY racing scene and the NYRA tracks will have an up year. As for the long term effect, I really think seeing our great 3 year olds running as 4 and 5 year olds will have a greater long term effect than any one horse winning the Triple Crown.

More reasons to root against Big Brown

The horse may be great, but Big Brown's ownership and trainer just are not all that "cuddly and fuzzy" and easy to love. Unlike past ownership groups like the Sackatoga guys that owned Funny Cide, it is just really hard to warm up to Michael Ivarone, co-president of IEAH, the principal owners of Big Brown. Now we read more news from the Joe Drape of the NY Times on the past troubles of Michael Ivarone. I personally find it real hard to root for a large syndicate that comes in, picks up the horse after his maiden win at Saratoga last September, runs him in the Derby, than sells his stud rights before the Preakness, and then announces he will not run as a 4 year old. As a fan, I wish I could see these great horses continue to run as 4 year olds, much like Curlin is doing this year. Look at the excitement Curlin has generated with his Dubai Cup win, and speculation about his campaign for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, horses like Street Sense are off to Stud , and the casual fan has long forgotten about him.