Monday, July 30, 2012

The Rule of 3

I've always been puzzled by the Giveaway Days at Saratoga. The Giveaway Days are the most attended Days of the meet, but not really. The problem is the track is reporting "spinners", those that pay multiple admissions to get multiple tickets for extra giveaways.

It's amazing to watch many of these people, walk in, pay multiple admissions, get in line for the giveaways and walk out of the track by 1:00 pm even before the first race goes off.

How many actual people were there? Or more importantly what is the effect on handle.

I use the Rule of 3. Expect no more than a third of the spinner reported attendance to actually place a bet on a giveaway day.

The reported Giveaway attendance yesterday was 50,727 with an on track handle of $3,071,438. That amounts to per person wager amount of only $60.54.

Compare this to the prior Sunday, where there was no giveaway item. The attendance was a modest 18,425 however the handle was $3,021,079. This is only $50,000 less than the giveaway Sunday handle yet there was  32,302 less bodies at the track that day. The  per person wager amount was a healthy $167.83.

Using the Rule of 3 for Giveaway Days the formula works out like this

Attendance (50,727) divided by 3 = 16,909 people who actually attend the track on a giveaway day AND actually place a bet.

1 comment:

Saratoga Sinner said...

I avoid giveaway days like the plaugue. Last year I went and a lady cut me during the national anthem!! They're only there for the free stuff and ruin it for the true fans.