I just read about abut two public handicappers-one who swears visual handicapping, (i.e. watching the horses in the paddock and the walk up to the gate before making a bet) is a great way to bet and one other handicapper who says he never does it-They both have good ROI records-so who’s to say what really is a good betting angle or not?
Here are some betting angles I have been using lately with some success.
When a jockey is injured and is than off his mounts for the rest of the day, bet the very next mount that Jockey would have had. Yesterday when Rajiv Maragh was thrown off Pico Dinero in the 7th race at Saratoga and sent to the hospital for observation, he could not make his next mount aboard Glacier Bay in the nightcap. I always feel this is like a freebie for the jockey getting the mount-he wasn’t expected to race and all of a sudden he gets a chance to make some extra coin-most jocks seem to ride with an extra zest when this happens. Eibar Coa got the mount and I jumped all over Glacier Bay who won at long odds paying $26.20 to win.
Another angle is to bet against the very, very hot trainer when every horse he sends out gets automatically bet down. Trainer Chad Brown was red hot the first 2 weeks of the meet, and his horses were getting bet down like crazy. If you took a stand against him with one of the long shots starting in week 3 you did ok. For instance on Sunday at the Spa, Brown’s horse Payout at 1-2 odds finished fourth with long shot winner Who’s Willie Fitz paying $44.80. Of course, knowing when to keep with the hot trainer or jump off board is the tricky part, you don’t want to jump too soon, but when the odds get crazily bet down, I’m well off board.
Conversely at some point a slumping trainer breaks his streak, especially a good one. Nick Zito was 0 for twenty-something entering Today's card at Saratoga, but when everyone stays away in droves at some point you gotta jump back on him as the odds should be pretty square. Today in the 5th, 2 year old Mountain Town paid $16.40 for winning trainer Zito and his pal Marylou Whitney.
Speaking of betting, you check out the handicapping selections of your favorite bloggers and writers at the TBA home page here for Arlington Million Day.