Well here we go, the day is here, the 2011 Kentucky Derby. For a field like this, with no superstar favorite, I look for value. I also look for who looks to be in the best form and looks to be peaking for the Derby. The worst value (now that Uncle Mo is scratched) will be Dialed In and Twice the Appeal. I first considered 9 horses: ArchArchArch, Twice the Appeal, Comma to the Top, Pants of Fire, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford, Midnight Interlude and Nehro. I than looked at the running style, odds and workouts to narrow it down to a final four.
From the day Shackleford almost held off Dialed In in the Florida Derby, I just keep coming back to this horse, his ML odds are attractive, and he has looked great at Churchill this week and has a win on the track. Can he get the Mile and a Quarter? Who knows, but we can say that for he entire field. He is my pick to hold off the late chargers and win the Kentucky Derby.
3. Mucho Macho Man