Kentucky Derby Exotic Angles

Everybody has their own Derby betting methods. Most are wrong. So lets have fun with some different betting angles:

The BC Juvenile Replay Superfecta: Bet the 1st 4 finishers of this race: Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Dullahan

The Upside Down BC Juvenile Superfecta: Bet the last 3 finishers from the BC Juvy : Alpha, Daddy Long Legs, Prospective

Father, Father Exacta: Daddy Nose Best, Daddy Long Legs

The I Told You so Exacta: Prospective, Rousing Sermon

The Control Freak Exacta: Alpha, Take Charge Indy

The Who trains that horse? Exacta: Done Talking, Trinniberg

The Shut up and Drink Exacta: Done Talking, I’ll Have Another

The Latest NYRA Mess

Well, I guess this NYRA mess makes for more interesting reading than the over analysis of who is going to win the Kentucky Derby, especially the whole involvement of Daily Racing Form publisher Steven Crist. I went back and read some of the reporting on the issue when the NYRA takeout story broke in December of 2011. I found this nugget from the ever astute Alan Mann over at his Left at the Gate blog in his 12/22/11 post. Mann, writing about Steven Crist not noticing the takeout withholding mistake, said this:

"If he missed it, then I suppose anyone could have. Still, the whole thing is really kinda weird."

Yep, weird it is. Looks to me like Crist has some explaining to do.

Searching for the Oaks

I tried looking on the NBC Sports Network website to see if they would be covering the Kentucky Oaks. The website had plenty of Hockey news on the front page, and with they NBC covering the NHL, that makes sense. But I figured there would be a banner ad or something on the homepage which would link to the Kentucky Derby week coverage. After all it is only a week away. No such luck. There is a TV listings link which takes you to a page with the weeks TV listings for the NBC Channels. You can than hit another link to finally get to the page listing by specific day. I learned the coverage on Oaks day goes from 5-6 pm. I guess that means we just get the Oaks race and maybe one race before that. I don't know for sure as the website gives no further information. I am sure I could find out by checking out other sites or contacting the Churchill Downs Media office, but how many people, especially the casual fans, want to go through all those steps?

HBO's Luck-Series Finale Thoughts

HBO's Luck is now over for good with the season and now series finale airing Sunday night. As a racing fan, the last few weeks have been like a continual nightmare, the really bad one that keeps going forever, the one you think you will never wake up from.

First we hear of the sad news that HBO, under pressure from PETA after a 3rd Horse fatality, quickly decides to cancel Luck. On the real life tracks, we read of the deaths this season on the inner track at Aqueduct. And than, the NY Times this past Friday ran a front page story titled "Death and Disarray at America's racetracks".

With all this dreary news running circles in my head I watched the finale of Luck.
Although it was filmed with the assumption a second season would be coming, the season one finale does serve nicely as a fitting ending to the series.

Many early viewers of the show thought the show was dreary and dark, but there was a lot of hope and optimism in the final episode, from the competitive but mutual admiration of the two trainers, Turo and Walter as their horses finished one, two in the Big Stakes race, Ace reuniting with his grandson, and the Foray Stables Foursome and friends happily celebrating a big win with Mon Gateau.

I admired the many wonderful actors in this show, especially John Ortiz, who could have simply kept quiet after the cancellation news, but instead increased his many tweets (@johnortiz718) about the show, continued to show up for #LuckChat Twitter chats (final session on Monday 3/26 from 9-10pm) and personally tweeted thanks to many viewers who contacted him via Twitter.

As I said in my last post, I can't question HBO's decision to cancel the show. The deaths to the horses happened and despite the care that was taken by the production crew, the reality of what happened had to be dealt with. For some background on the treatment on the horses on set, Ray Paulick in his Paulick Report, details the great care the production crew took with the horses.

How fitting then that the show ended with just one actor on the screen, the equine actor playing 3 year old colt Pint o' Plain, standing peacefully in his stall. We see this beautiful horse poking his head out of the stall, and than the screen fades to black.

Out of Luck

After a reported 3rd death of a horse during the production of HBO's Luck, the series is no more, abruptly cancelled. The final episode of the 9 episode season 1 will be shown this Sunday March 25th. Work had begun on Season 2, but Season 2 is a no go.

No one wants to see animals hurt and not being on the set or knowing the safety protocols in place, I can't possibly argue in good faith that the series should continue. I trust the right decision was made.

I feel saddened for all involved including the fine actors involved. Particularly Richard Kind, John Ortiz and Kevin Dunn who all shined among the large cast.

I've read on the various websites and Twitter that the show was boring or uninteresting. Well TV is art and opinion of art is just that, we all have opinions and its all subjective. It is interesting to note that many of the critics watched only the 1st episode. As any fan of creator David Milch knows, his shows evolve over time with almost every spoken line in one episode a key to be remembered in future episodes. (Syntax is how I know, Syntax!)

Some found the show depressing and saw the characters as "down and out". I'd argue the shows characters were not down and out at all, but rather real people just like the many folks I've met over the years at the track. Look at the evolution of the 4 gamblers who were labeled simply degenerates by critics of the show. Had the critics stuck around to watch these 4 characters develop they would have seen they were more than that, 4 men with dreams and depths of emotions who loved not just gambling but the animals they bet on as well as each other.

What is so ironic with the cancellation is that with each episode you saw how much the human characters really cared for these horses. Last weeks episode faded to black with Dustin Hoffman's character sitting in his bed late at night watching on his laptop via webcam his prized 3 year old horse in his stall.

Luck Starting to Payoff

In our last post yours truly defended HBO's Luck. We argued that these type of series take investment of time and patience. Often it is difficult to see the depth of each character and where they are going but if you stay with it you will be rewarded.

After 5 episodes the payoffs are starting to come in. We now see that these characters are not purely one dimensional, they all have a story to tell. As for the track itself the last two episodes featured beautifully shot races. We all could quibble about the "reality" of the series but I'm enjoying it thus far.

Reviews since Episode 2 seem to be trending positive and twitter interest seems high as evidenced by the Luck Chat series on Monday Nights at 9 on Twitter (enter hastag #LuckChat). The Chats include series regular John Ortiz (Turo Escalante) and Chantel Sutherland among others. If your around Twitter at that time, check it out.

Defending HBO's Luck

Two episodes in for the HBO series Luck and many critics abound, calling it slow, boring, hard to understand, etc.

Maybe because I'm a David Milch (creator of Luck) fan I knew to expect slow character development. I loved his Deadwood series on HBO but watching the show took dedication to the many plot lines and story telling. I'm also a big fan of HBO's series in general, and a lot them also took time. Remember how many times you watched a Soprano's episode, and complained about the lack of action and confusing endings? And how many people missed the brilliance of the HBO series The Wire because they bailed early, confused by the many characters and plots.

These type of shows take investment of time in exchange for a build up and subsequent payoff. Yes reading tweets on twitter will give you an instant payoff but sometimes wading through a long book is worth the later payout.

Luck on HBO gets 2nd Season Go Ahead

After Just one episode Luck on HBO has been renewed for a second season. Based on some articles and blogs I read reviews were mixed. Some were displeased with the the characters in the show, feeling they were stereotypes and exaggerated caricatures. But remember stereotypes are there for a reason, they are usually true.

I have a few friends who are hard core racetrack gamblers who resemble the 4 slovenly gamblers who won the Pick 6 in the first episode. Anytime I have ever been to a track and retreat from the stands to watch the race from an inside simulcast TV, I see folks just like the gamblers portrayed on Luck. I love those guys-they are part of the fabric of the track and to omit them would be a white washing of who really inhabits the track. I also liked that the lingo was not dumbed down for a mass audience.

On the down side, I found the Dustin Hoffman character to be a bit over the top and his front man Dennis Farina, seemed almost too naive to be picked by the Hoffman character as a front man. But HBO dramas typically have a slow character build so lets see what happens.

Breeders' Cup Goes to NBS Sports

Really no surprise ESPN is out as the TV outlet for the Breeders' Cup coverage but I did figure it would happen not now but after their contract ran out in 2013. Over the 6 years ESPN had the Breeders' Cup their overall Horse racing coverage wilted, and this past year it really seemed they were just mailing it in.

So what to expect as the Breeders' Cup moves to NBC and NBC Sports Network (formerly Versus):

Not much bad news, although I will miss Jeannine Edwards and Kenny Mayne. Edwards never mailed it in and the humorous Mayne loves the game. Also, not everyone has the NBC Sports Coverage as part of their cable or satellite subscriptions. With less overall viewers the TV ratings might actually be down this year with the change.

However there is plenty of Good:

We get to keep seeing Randy Moss, who worked this summer for NBC on their "Summer at Saratoga" broadcasts.

We also get better branding as NBC now has the complete Triple Crown Races, a bunch of derby prep races, Saratoga racing coverage and now the BC. Now we know when it comes to racing we can turn on NBC or NBC Sports Network throughout the year, instead of wondering what or where we can find the TV coverage. As NBC continues to grow the NBC Sports Network Channel, it seems they will build it around several sports including Hockey and Horse racing. No longer will it be the ugly stepchild that ESPN treated it like.

Mirahmadi's in the Gate

As we enter 2012 Frank Mirahmadi will be the new race caller at Oaklawn Park taking over for Terry Wallace. Opening Day is January 13, 2012. Frank was the backup announcer to Wallace last year. He has called races all over and also at a stint as an racing analyst at TVG.

People's favorite announcers come down to the style of race calling you like. I like Frank as I like his style of exciting, upbeat and often funny race calls. His comedic talent comes out very easily and is often used in his races. Frank is also a great voice impersonator doing the voices of Rodney Dangerfield, Jack Buck, Hank Stram, Andy Rooney, and the late Kentucky Derby caller Luke Kruytbosch among others.

Some like the straight,by the book, calling the numbers type race call. I'll take the enthusiastic race call spiced up with humour as seen in the calls of NYRA's Tom Durkin. I will bet a Finger Lakes race maybe 2 or 3 times a year, but I do find myself listening to the race calls of Finger Lakes race caller Tony Calo because of his excitement and humour. This is what we will get with Mirahmadi at Oaklawn and that's good for the game.

Where's the Money?

The New York State Racing & Wagering Board voted unanimously on Wednesday to admonish the New York Racing Association for overcharging bettors millions of dollars over the past 15 months.

Not exactly the year end publicity NYRA was hoping for.

More importantly, when do the bettors get refunds? The payback totals 8.6 million. If you have a NYRA Rewards account, you will probably get your refund first I would suppose. For non NYRA betting accounts, expect a much longer wait and for those cash bets, well ...you know what they say.

And this gem as reported in the Times Union (Albany, NY)

"I don't expect this will ever happen again,"

Racing Board Commissioner Charles Diamond said.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Pilot Episode of Luck on HBO-DVR Alert

Certainly seems like HBO is putting a big push on promoting the new fictionalized series "Luck" -a behind the scenes look at the world of racing. If it fails it won't be for lack of talent. Headed by Dustin Hoffman, the show is loaded with veteran actors.

HBO has been running numerous promotional trailer ads on its' network and this Sunday, 12/11/11, the show's pilot episode will be shown at 10 pm following the season finale of the hit HBO series Boardwalk Empire.

The details of the pilot episode arrived in my hands and here is the cliff notes version:

As the series opens, Chester "Ace" Bernstein (Dustin Hoffman) is released from three years in federal prison and is eager to get back into the racing game. We soon meet his buddy/driver/bodyguard Gus Demitriou (Dennis Farina), who will front as the owner of the $2 million Irish horse that Ace just bought.

The episode than introduces a talented but disreputable trainer (have you heard that one before?), the Peruvian Turo Escalante (John Ortiz). His girlfriend is track veterinarian Jo (Jill Hennessy).

Meanwhile we meet the veteran trainer-turned-owner Walter Smith (Nick Nolte). He also has a promising horse but he's wary as we get hints there is some sort of scandal behind the horse. Filling out the pilot we meet Four hard luck gamblers, Marcus (Kevin Dunn), Renzo (Ritchie Coster), Jerry (Jason Gedrick), and Lonnie (Ian Hart), as they pool their monetary resources to bet Jerry's Pick Six ticket.

In addition to the above actors the show also features Richard Kind, and current Jockey Chantal Sutherland and retired Jockey Gary Stevens.

Attendance Figures No More

With the opening of the Resorts World Casino at the Aqueduct Racetrack, another long standing tradition seems to have gone out the window.

Attendance figures are no longer tallied. You can't find the published attendance in your daily newspaper or on the Equibase Company LLC Charts.

Still staunchly old school, I look forward to my morning cup of coffee with a newspaper in hand before I even consider checking any website or twitter news feed. The sports section of the paper gets read first, including a look at the previous days track results.

But with the opening of the Resorts World Casino (or lets call it what it is-a glorified slots hall) and people (zombies?) wandering in from the slots hall there is no more accounting of actual track goers and hence no attendance figure published. You can still get an idea on who was there by looking at the On Track handle figure and backing into a number but where is the fun in that? I particularly liked checking attendance on the brutal winter days at the Big A marveling at the hearty souls who would show up to bet the ponies in person.

And going way back I remember when my local candy store in the Bronx used the last 3 digits of the attendance of the NYRA tracks for the "daily number". Most NYC "numbers" outfits would use the daily on track handle figure but the folks running this candy store numbers racket went with the attendance figure. As the mob still extends credit, unlike the NYS Lottery system, the numbers still have their loyal players- but it will have to be with the handle and not the attendance figure.

Breeders Cup Day 2

Day 1 is over. Friday seemed to be pretty formulaic, except of course for the two longshots in Musical Romance and Perfect Shirl. The crowd seemed muted, but I guess that is what you would expect one year Post Zenyatta.

Many seemed suprised at the favorite odds for Uncle Mo. But that is the name people recognize (sorry Goldikova fans) so that's what happens. I like Flat Out, Havre De Grace, Drosslemeyer, Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty in a Trifecta Box bet.

For the Juvenile I love Union Rags, but will take a stab with Daddy Long Legs and Speightscity to fill out my exotic tickets. Good Luck

Breeders Cup Betting Scandal-Can it Happen Again?

As the interwebs and Twitterverse become alive with betting strategies, workout results, and scheduling of Twitter meet ups, my mine wanders on to the Pick Six Breeders Cup betting scandal. After all it's been 9 years since 3 men attempted to cash in on the Pick 6 bet at the 2002 Breeders Cup by manipulating a weak link they found in the Autotote system used to process OTB bets. The plot was masterminded by Chris Harn, a senior computer programmer at Autotote. Harn was smart enough to figure out a weak link in how Autotote processed the Pick 6 live tickets and he and 2 others than used that weak link to cash in on a 3 million payout. Had the 43-1 longshot (Volponi) not won , making them the only ticket to cash in, they probably would have gotten away with it. The 3 were ultimately caught however, and plead guilty.

What's the chances of it happening again? Well with the increased use of Advance Wagering Accounts hackers are busy at work searching for a vulnerability in the various systems.

Hacking is alive and well-just ask Sony, who lost 3.2 billion when their PS3 console system was hacked exposing 77 million account holders earlier this year. Our schools are putting out hundreds of thousands of computer trained young people, many who are busy at work and better at finding weak entries into the various website and computer systems of corporations and businesses. While you are busy studying Past Performances and workout results someone much smarter than you is studying harder than you and it will result in a bigger payout than you.

Charismatic Documentary Thoughts

Thanks to my trusty DVR, I was able to watch the ESPN Documentary on Charismatic. In reading other blog recaps on the race, it seemed the diehards wanted more storytelling on Charismatic, the horse who won the first two legs of the 1999 Triple Crown. However the Documentary focused on the rise and subsequent fall of Jockey Chris Antley.

From a Documentary making standpoint, ESPN was wise to focus on Antley and his battles with drug addiction. The average viewer remains interested in an athletes struggle with addiction. One day after the Charismatic doc, ESPN went the same route again, as they aired a "E-60"documentary with former NY Mets Pitcher Dwight Gooden revealing was in a drug-induced haze and missed the Mets'1986 World Series victory parade.

If you wanted to learn more about Charismatic, you really didn't learn much but the storytelling on Antley was effective, although a bit rushed.

In other documentary notes, if you are in the Saratoga area, The National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame will host a pair of screenings of the documentary film "The Last Train from Bay Meadows" on Wednesday, Nov. 2 and Thursday Nov. 3 at 7 pm. "The Last Train from Bay Meadows" portrays the history and the eventual closure of the longest continually running Thoroughbred track in California. The track closed in 2008 after nearly 75 years of operation. A discussion of the documentary with producer and director Jon Rubin will follow the screening each night. And the price is right as Admission is Free.

Muddy Super Saturday

Seems like the track will play in Stay Thirsty's favor today in what looks to be a card playing to form. Really like the trio of Stay Thirsty, Flat Out and Drosselmeyer. I figure eventually Ice Box will pop one, but not with my money today. You can catch my preview of the race over at Thorofan. The all stakes pick 4 would seem chalky also, but have some fun with it and throw in some longshots.

24/7 for Racing

The New York Rangers and Philadelphia Flyers will be featured on HBO's Emmy award winning 24/7 reality series in this years "24/7 FLYERS/RANGERS: ROAD TO THE NHL WINTER CLASSIC". The HBO series on the NHL debuted last year and the show received across the board fan and media critics approval. I'm sure it also brought more attention to the sport and only helped to bring in some new fans.

We wrote last year that Horse Racing would be perfect for the 24/7 reality series. HBO at the time was reportedly looking to pick up a new sport for the 24/7 franchise but so far no decision has been made.

Here's to the Winners

What will you be doing at about 10:25 pm EDT on Friday night? Well, yours truly after 3 weeks of adjusting Irene claims 24/7 will be looking to relax with friends and a few drinks. And heck I might even turn on my OTB simulcast channel and watch the feed from Charles Town where Rapid Redux attempts to win his 17th consecutive race in a $20,000 starter allowance at 1 1/16 miles.

If nothing else, this 5 year old gelding out of Pleasantly Perfect has been a model of consistently. He also has been managed well by his connections, owner Robert Cole J. and trainer David Wells, as he was claimed last October for $6,500. Since than he has raced 19 times and 15 times alone this year. He might not beat a Stakes level horse, but he has some decent Beyer figures and his connections have proved you can turn a profit if you pick your spots and have a horse that likes to run.

He last ran 12 days ago. Funny I have not come across any articles about how Rapid Redux is being abused and his trainer should be investigated for continually sending Rapid Redux out to the gate.

Saratoga Final Weekend

As usual the last weekend sneaks up on all of us. Making it more bittersweet is the severe flooding from Irene in the upstate area, which has affected many of my fellow residents in the surrounding counties around Saratoga, particularly nearby Schoharie County, Greene County, Schenectady County and Warren County. The storm cancelled out Sunday's card and attendance has been down a bit this week. Being in the insurance biz yours truly has been busy trying to service all the victims of this storm.

This will take me away from the final weekend but will be watching from the road. My must use horses in the Woodward Stakes are Rule, Flat Out, Mambo Meister. Don't count out Ice Box also, especially if the price is right.

Good luck and enjoy the weekend.