Over/Under Prop Bets Predictions

Here are some interesting Over/Under Proposition Bets with Predictions on the outcome

Proposition	Over/Under	Prediction
NBC Nielsen Rating	9.5	Take the Under (Last Year was 9.8)
How Many Horses will Tom Durkin Call as the Race Leader in the Derby	5	Expect a topsy turvy pace with many lead changes-Take the Over
How many times will Durkin mispronounce the Oaks Winner	3	Durkin called Rachel Alexandra “Alexander” 3 times during the '09 Oaks-This time he will be ready –Take the Under
How Many Horses will actually Start the Race	20	With Heavy rain possible, figure a late scratch or two-Take the Under
Finish Position of Lookin at Lucky	3.5	Maybe 4th or 5th-I’ll take the Over
Final Odds for Devil May Care	8-1	Expect the casual fan to bet the filly heavy-Take the Under
Attendance at Churchill	153,000	Possible lousy weather-Take the Under
Final Odds of Winning Horse	9-1	Just looks like a year that a 10-1 to 12-1 horse wins it-Take the Over

For the latest and last minute Derby News, Predictions, Odds, etc check out our home page
at tbablogs.com

Life is Good

Bill Finley profiles Dodgers Owner Joe Torre, part owner of Homeboykris, in the NY Times. Majority owner Louis Lazzinnaro is the owner of Sergio's restaurant, just outside Saratoga in Wilton and Spolini in Kew Gardens, Queens.

Torre a 9 time all star as a player with 4 World Series Rings on his finger as a Manager has also proven to be a success in the Horse Racing world. This includes his cut of Vineyard Haven, which Finley reports at 2.4 million, when the partners sold him as a 2 year old.

Finley also writes:

Torre said he owned parts of “six or seven horses,”

At some point in reaching success, the potential assets become hard to track. You know life is good when you can't remember exactly how many horses you have owned.

Check back with me on Wednesday

With Eskendereya now out of the Kentucky Derby, the Wednesday Derby Day Post Draw becomes particularly intriguing. Don't expect any announcement on if the filly Devil May Care will definitely run until after the Draw.

I suspect Todd Pletcher will enter Devil May Care in both the Oaks and the Derby, see what type of post position she gets in both and than go from there. With Eskendereya out, value goes down on everyone else. I was looking for some really nice horses at between 8-1 and 12-1. There will still be some value for Horse Racing Betting on the Derby, it will just take more work to find it with Esky now out.

Who will be in the final 20? Basically if Devil May Care is in, Jackson Bend is out. This of course assumes no other defections such as another Pletcher horse Interactiff. On the bench behind Jackson Bend if others defect are Backtalk followed by Make Music for Me.

The Derby has reverted to its traditional "blind draw" format and will be conducted at noon (EDT) on Wednesday, April 28, at Churchill Downs. It used to be covered live on ESPN, but in their quest to cover less and less racing each year, they dropped the coverage in 2009. For the best coverage of the Derby Draw coverage on Wednesday count on the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance homepage at tbablogs.com

Kentucky Derby Pre Race Coverage Ideas

About now NBC is mulling over story lines to run during the pre-race coverage of The Kentucky Derby.

In 2009 NBC had a piece on Trainer Larry Jones and Eight Belles as well as a feature piece on trainer Bob Baffert and his attempt to win his fourth Derby with Pioneerof the Nile (finished 2nd).

Television always loves the underdog story and last year NBC decided to focus on the one-horse barn of former high school principal Tom McCarthy with General Quarters, who he claimed for the bargain-basement price of $20,000. There was no feel good ending as GQ finished 10th.

It is always a calculated gamble as to what horses to feature, especially when you have a 20 horse field. 50-1 long shot winner Mine That Bird who paid $103.20 was not featured at all in any pre-race feature pieces.

One thing NBC can do for 2010 is just edit the piece they run every year on Trainer Todd Pletcher. This year the Toddster may have as many as 6 horses entering the Gate at Churchill. He had 5 in 2007 and they finished 6th, 8th, 9th, 18th and 20th (last). Here is a question for you-Will the 5 or 6 horses entered by Pletcher in 2010 average a finish higher than his 5 starters in 2007 which finished in an average of 12th place?

Last year NBC did a piece on Pletcher's attempt to break his 0-for-21 Derby slump with Dunkirk. He finished 11th.

Zenyatta Webcast-Strike 2

The NTRA failed with their attempted webcast of Zenyatta's 2010 debut and now the Daily Racing Form via drf.com has swung and missed at the 2nd pitch thrown as they also failed with Friday's attempted webcast of Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom.

You know the ole saying: Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Well this time not expecting much I had a backup plan in place-I fired up my computer browser on drf.com at the same time my TV was turned onto to my local OTB (Capital-OTB) Simulcast channel.

After attempting to see the webcast on drf.com and only getting a "Video feed not currently available" message I checked the blogosphere and Twitter verse, saw that it was just not me who could not get connected to the webcast and than I gave up, satisfied that at least I had the old familiar OTB simulcast video feed on my trustworthy Television.

This webcast thing is becoming laughable.

Who gets to try and swing at the 3rd pitch webcast when Zenyatta races next (hopefully at Belmont Park in June)? Maybe give bloodhorse.com a shot, or Thoroughbred Times or ....oh, just forget it!

The Tiger and the Horse

Pretty interesting that one sporting event-The Masters- will get plenty of media attention this weekend because its star is back and one other event-The Apple Blossom-drops off the radar because a star decides to sit this one out.

The Masters for ESPN and CBS will be a ratings monster while The Apple Blossom is relegated to HRTV and to a Daily Racing Form webcast.

Sure it it always cool to see Zenyatta run but after the Rachel Alexandra pull-out, the exciting rivalry aspect that caught the attention of so many people went out the window. Now its more like, oh yeah, the Apple Blossom is this Friday night, I almost forgot.

Well, at least this weekend watching Zenyatta and than the Derby preps on Saturday, I can still yell, scream, cheer and boo the horses and the Jockey without penalty, unlike the Masters where everyone is told to whisper and clap politely. At least one banner-pulling plane in the sky above the Augusta National Golf Club got it right.

Eskendereya-Hooked on Phonics

It looks like Eskendereya will be the odds on favorite come Kentucky Derby time after his impressive looking win in the Wood Memorial at the Big A. (By the way, nice turnout of 8,553 fans/horse players, about 3,500 more than I predicted would show up in my last post).

Over the next 4 weeks, two camps will develop-those that think Eskendereya is the real thing, and the other camp that will be eager to bet against the likely favorite.

Of course the easiest bet is that the name of the horse will be more mispronounced than not leading up to the Kentucky Derby.

For the record Eskendereya is pronounced S-Ken-DREY-uh

A month Away-what does the NY fan say?

With the Kentucky Derby now only a month away, and warm temperatures arriving this weekend in the Northeast, I wonder if enthusiasm will percolate for racing and this years run for the Triple Crown. At least on the east coast, with no clear cut beast this year amongst the tribe of Derby contenders, things seem a little muted.

But than again, maybe I am clouded by being a New York Resident, and stuck with daily morose headlines about racing in NY including the ongoing 9 year old VLT disgrace (Thank you Governor Pataki, Spitzer and Paterson and our State Legislature), the NYC OTB financial meltdown and diminishing purses at the 3 NYRA tracks.

It feels like a wet washcloth is constantly thrown upon the NY racing fan.

Tomorrow is one of the biggest days of the year at Aqueduct-the Wood Memorial. Unfortunately however, to go there almost seems like a cruel reminder of a track that should be filled and should have had slots installed years ago.

The only salvation will be the weather which promises to be a sunny day in the 70's (or maybe higher) so maybe that will be enough for 5000 or so fans to leave the political baggage behind and just come out to watch the horses run.