Mudder, Mudder, Father, Father

Is it too early to check out the long range weather forecast for the Kentucky Derby? It would seem so, but already I have seen some folks on Twitter with certainty predicting rain all day for Oaks day and Derby day. Seems too early for me, although definitely appears the Kentucky area is stuck in a wet pattern and it is expected to continue into next week.



For some reason it always seems to rain either the Friday or Saturday of Derby weekend, or at least I seem to remember it that way. But in actuality only 4 Derby races since 1990 have been run on a "sloppy" track. Here is the list with winners:

2010: Super Saver
2009: Mine That Bird
2004: Smarty Jones
1994: Go for Gin

Oh, one more thing if you are going this year, Umbrellas are listed as a "Banned Item" not allowed at Churchill Downs.

Photo Credit: The Weather Channel (www.weather.com)

The Breeders Cup Also-Rans

With so many words now being written on the Thrilling finish Blame and Zenyatta gave us in the Classic , I don't know if I can add much, so let us take a look at some of the weekends also-rans as described in the Equibase Result Charts:

Mine That Bird (Dirt Mile, finished 1oth out of 12 starters):

Steadied at the start when Morning Line drifted out, raced three wide and was no factor.

This pretty much describes his year where he was never a factor in 4 starts. Mine That Bird was retired today.

Lookin at Lucky (Classic, finished 4th out of 12 starters):

within reach of the leaders the opening half while unhurried, advanced four wide past the three furlong marker, rallied in company with the winner approaching the stretch, battled that one to inside the final furlong and weakened

Part of my Tri-Box with Blame and Zenyatta, it looked for a minute that he would go with both of them all the way to the line, but he didn't do it and also allowed Fly Down to beat him by a neck at the finish for 3rd.

Quality Road (Classic, finished 12th out of 12 starters):

close up along the inside, moved off the rail on the second turn and stopped after six furlongs

Man did he stop.

Preakness Proposition Over/Under Bets

We hit only 3 out of 8 of our Kentucky Derby Prop Bets. Lets see how we do with the Preakness

Proposition	Over/Under	Prediction
NBC Final Nielsen Rating	6.6	Under-Can’t see it beating ’09 when it hit 6.8 with Rachel/Mine That Bird
How Many Horses will Start	12	Under
Finish Position of Lookin at Lucky	2	Under: He has to get Lucky one of these days, why not now?
Attendance at Pimlico	105,000	Over-Last year drew 78,000, Get Your Preak on infield marketing will easily top this
Non Derby Starters finishing in the Money	1	It’s a Push-(Caracortado gets in)
Todd Pletcher Horses finishing in the Money	1	Push-Super Saver in, Aikenite out

Blind Squirrel WPS Picks: Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O'Prado, Caracortado

For the latest Preakness News, Predictions, and PP data check out our home page at tbablogs.com

Kentucky Derby Pre Race Coverage Ideas

About now NBC is mulling over story lines to run during the pre-race coverage of The Kentucky Derby.

In 2009 NBC had a piece on Trainer Larry Jones and Eight Belles as well as a feature piece on trainer Bob Baffert and his attempt to win his fourth Derby with Pioneerof the Nile (finished 2nd).

Television always loves the underdog story and last year NBC decided to focus on the one-horse barn of former high school principal Tom McCarthy with General Quarters, who he claimed for the bargain-basement price of $20,000. There was no feel good ending as GQ finished 10th.

It is always a calculated gamble as to what horses to feature, especially when you have a 20 horse field. 50-1 long shot winner Mine That Bird who paid $103.20 was not featured at all in any pre-race feature pieces.

One thing NBC can do for 2010 is just edit the piece they run every year on Trainer Todd Pletcher. This year the Toddster may have as many as 6 horses entering the Gate at Churchill. He had 5 in 2007 and they finished 6th, 8th, 9th, 18th and 20th (last). Here is a question for you-Will the 5 or 6 horses entered by Pletcher in 2010 average a finish higher than his 5 starters in 2007 which finished in an average of 12th place?

Last year NBC did a piece on Pletcher's attempt to break his 0-for-21 Derby slump with Dunkirk. He finished 11th.

Breeders Cup Gambles on Football

There has been mixed reaction to the decision to air Breeders Cup Qualifier races between a College Football doubleheader on ESPN on October 10th, 2009.

Depending on the schedule, viewers tuned into ESPN on that day will get the chance to see either Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret or Mine That Bird in the Goodwood Stakes.

Some may be offended at being sandwiched between the 2 games, but lets face it, Horse racing (besides the Triple Crown races) just can't draw the #'s that college football brings in for ESPN. Just this past Saturday for instance, USC's victory over Ohio State drew a 6.3 rating and 10.6 million viewers on ESPN. If the college football telecast on the 10th is only half that , say a 3.1, and say only half of that # stay to watch the racing between the games, that still is a rating of 1.5. By comparison last years "Filly Friday" drew a 0.3 rating and the Saturday portion of the Breeders Cup telecast on ESPN on Saturday drew a 1.0 rating.

Much as many people won't like the truncated short coverage, the potential viewing audience can't be ignored.

source: Neilsen Media Research

Post Travers Reflections

Random Reflections from Travers Weekend at the Spa:

-I wonder if any of my loyal 5 readers bet the Summer Bird/Hold me Back Exacta I gave out on Friday.

-Very glad I was at the track Saturday and not at home betting on my NYRA Rewards Account-Many commenter's on Steve Crists' Cristblog complained about slow service and getting locked out of the site when trying to place an online bet.

-I was a little perplexed at the low crowd figure on Saturday of 34,221 (the lowest since 1979). I realize the dropout of Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird hurt, but you still had the Belmont winner, plus Quality Road and a competitive field of seven. Yeah the forecast was bad, but it was not raining all that hard once the races started. I would have thought 40,000 or so fans would have still showed up, with rain gear in hand. Maybe everyone is just coming next Saturday to see Rachel Alexandra. Everyone says they are showing up, but my guess is less than you think will actually be there.(more about that later this week).

-Here are a few photos I took on Travers Day:



Quality Road unseats Velasquez while trying to load in the Gate



Summer Bird looking relaxed and ready going into the Gate




and they're off in the 140th running of the Travers Stakes!

Rachel Alexandra Winner-NYRA

They might want to add the Woodward Stakes on Septmember 5th to this Hotel sign, now that Rachel Alexandra will be running in it.

I certainly understand the historical perspective if this great filly dusts the field of older males in the Woodward, and I fully expect she will dust the field, but I think the Travers would have been a harder test, even if she did already beat the 3 year old boys (twice at that). I think the Mile and a 1/4 length would have been a challenge, especially against a healthy Mine That Bird, Summer Bird and Quality Road.

But the choice has been made, and the real winner is NYRA, which now gets rewarded with all 3 Triple Crown Race winners running in the final 2 weekends of the meet.

Weekend TV Coverage for Rachel Alexandra

....only if you have TVG or you like watching simulcast feeds.

As pointed out by Steve Crist in his Daily Racing Form column of 07/30/09, no major networks (ABC, CBS, NBC or ESPN) will be covering the major races this weekend, which includes Rachel Alexandra and Summer Bird in the Haskell, Mine That Bird in the West Virgina Derby as well as big Stakes races at Saratoga and Delmar.

Crist mentions viewers will be relegated to TVG or an OTB simulcast but other TV options are out there, albeit on a limited scale and not on a national TV basis.

The West Virgina Derby will be broadcast on Saturday at 5 pm on Fox Sports Net (FSN) which is available on many cable systems throughout the country.

The Grade I Diana and Grade II Jim Dandy at Saratoga will be broadcast Saturday at 5 pm on MSG Plus network (MSG +) which is available on most cable systems in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

Of course, probably the biggest race of the weekend, The Haskell at Monmouth is only on TVG which is available on satellite systems but not available on many major cable systems. I figured one of the ESPN family of channels would pick it up and checked the latest ESPN TV listings (last year ESPN Classic broadcast the West Virginia Derby). The Haskell goes off around 6:15 pm. From 6pm-7pm ESPN Classic is showing a repeat of "Hot August Nights" .....a nostalgia car auction show.


07/31/09 UPDATE: NYRA announced today that they have partnered with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) to air the MSG Plus series “Saturdays at Saratoga” on MASN, expanding the distribution of the program from the 4 states mentioned above to now a seven-state region that extends down to Charlotte, North Carolina. MASN will carry all dates live from 5-6 p.m. beginning Saturday, August 1. Also HRTV, found mostly on Satellite Systems will also have the Haskell feed.

A Beautiful Belmont Stakes Day

Probably a year from now, my first memory of the '09 Belmont Stakes will be the beautiful weather-mid 70's with sunshine and no humidity. What a difference from the humidity marred Belmont of '08.

My crew of 5 arrived at Belmont around 10:30 am-plenty of time to walk around the Big Park. After watching Just Ben , an impressive 3 year old win the 2nd race (maybe we will see him in the Kings Bishop Stakes at the Spa) I ventured to the Paddock to meet up with Gene from Equispace, who when asked who he liked in the Belmont Stakes, humbly said: "I'm a great handicapper but a terrible better".

I'm almost always a terrible better but today the betting gods were on my side and I ended up on the plus side for the day, ending the day with a $1 trifecta box on Summer Bird, Dunkirk and Mine That Bird for a tidy $147.50 score. I'm a big Birdstone fan, we all remember his Belmont Stakes win over Smarty Jones, but I loved his Travers win in the approaching darkness as a fierce thunderstorm erupted as soon as he crossed the finish line, and ever since I have followed his stud career closely. I liked Summer Bird's closing kick in the Kentucky Derby, and he looked great coming out of the Paddock on Saturday. More winnings would have come my way if I had boxed my top 4 that I called on Friday, which would have been a $800 plus superfecta score. I also managed to finish 2nd in the Brooklyn Backstretch Charity Attendance Guessing contest where Steve Zorn edged me out with a late entry. The Backstretch Employees Service Team, (B.E.S.T.) will be the recipient of a $50 donation from Brooklyn Backstretch which I will also match.

I leave you with some Pictures of my Day at the Belmont Stakes:



The Gorgeous Paddock at Belmont



The Pony Tailed Steve Crist giving Pick 6 advice to fellow media members outside the Paddock at The Belmont



And They're off in the 141st Belmont Stakes



Even a Blind Squirrel finds a nut once in a while

Belmont Stakes Facts & Figures

---Beware betting Mine That Bird-The Belmont Stakes is not a race where the favorite fares well, especially in the last 2 decades.

---In the 1990's only 2 favorites finished 1st-A.P. Indy in 1992 and Thunder Gulch in 1995. Favorites failing to get the win included Unbridled (4th in '90); Strike the Gold (2nd in '91) and Real Quiet (2nd in '98)

---In this decade only 2 favorites won the race--Point Given in 2001 and Afleet Alex in 2005. Notable disappointments include War Emblem (8th in '02),Funny Cide (3rd in '03), Smarty Jones (2nd in '04), Curlin (2nd in '07) and Big Brown (DNF in '08)

---Despite stories about declining on track handle the 2 biggest on track handles for the Belmont were in this decade in '04 ($14,461,402) and '08 ($13,233,071)

---Likewise for attendance-The 4 highest Attendance totals are all in this decade ('04,'02,03,08) with the record being 120,139 in '04 when Mine That Bird's Daddy Birdstone upset Smarty Jones.

In the "for what it's what department" here is my betting thoughts: I see a slow paced race which I don't think will do Mine That Bird any favors. I see MTB making his customary one move late run, but I wonder if the long stretch will be just a tad too long for MTB. I would leave him in my exotics, just not sure he will get up for the win. My main bet will be a 4 horse Trifecta box of Mine That Bird, Charitable Man, Dunkirk and Summer Bird.

Good luck to all-I will be at Beautiful Belmont Park all day tomorrow for the big day. If you want to say hi, I will be the confused looking guy studying the racing program mulling about in the Grandstand area.

Belmont Post Positions

Here are the Post Positions for The Belmont Stakes with morning line odds.

1. Chocolate Candy, Garrett Gomez, 10-1
2. Dunkirk, John Velazquez, 4-1
3. Mr. Hot Stuff, Edgar Prado, 15-1
4. Summer Bird, Kent Desormeaux, 12-1
5. Luv Gov, Miguel Mena, 20-1
6. Charitable Man, Alan Garcia, 3-1
7. Mine That Bird, Calvin Borel, 2-1
8. Flying Private, Julian Leparoux, 12-1
9. Miner’s Escape, Joe Lezcano, 15-1
10. Brave Victory, Rajiv Maragh, 15-1

Morning line favorite Mine That Bird, at 2-1 drew the #7 post position. In case your wondering last years winner, Da'Tara came out of the # 6 post position. 2007 winner Rags to Riches was in the #7 post position.

Last years finish by post position #'s: 6-4-8-9
2007 finish: 7-3-2-6

Belmont Stakes TV Ratings Preview

Now that we know Rachel Alexandra will skip the Belmont Stakes, how will the TV ratings be? For a point of reference this years Kentucky Derby had a final rating of 9.8 and the Preakness had a final rating of 6.8.

One thing for sure, is that ratings for the Belmont Stakes climb when a horse is going for the Triple Crown and are only so-so when no Triple Crown is on the line.

Here is the Data. First the ratings when a Triple Crown is on the line (since 1997) listed by rating, year, horse attempting triple and network:

9.0,: 2008-Big Brown - ABC
13.1,: 2004-Smarty Jones - NBC
10.7,: 2003- Funny Cide - NBC
8.4,: 2002- War Emblem -NBC
6.0,: 1999- Charismatic - ABC
5.9,: 1998- Real Quiet -, ABC
5.3,: 1997,-Silver Charm - ABC

Now here are the ratings when no Triple Crown is on the line since 1997 listed by rating, year, Belmont winner and network:

3.2, - 2007-Rags to Riches -ABC
3.5, -2006-Jazil - ABC
5.4, -2005-Afleet Alex - - NBC
4.9,-2001 - Point Given - NBC
2.8,-2000 – Commendale-, ABC

Since 1997 , with a Triple Crown on the line, the average rating is 8.3. When it is not the rating average is 4.0.

If Rachel would have run, (she had more name recognition than Rags to Riches) the matchup with Mine That Bird would have drawn the casual fan to the Tube, and a 5.0-7.0 rating figure would be possible. Now, with no Triple Crown on the line and no marketable foe facing Mine That Bird look for a rating in the 3.5-5.0 range.

Source: Nielsen Media Research