Breeders' Cup Goes to NBS Sports

Really no surprise ESPN is out as the TV outlet for the Breeders' Cup coverage but I did figure it would happen not now but after their contract ran out in 2013. Over the 6 years ESPN had the Breeders' Cup their overall Horse racing coverage wilted, and this past year it really seemed they were just mailing it in.

So what to expect as the Breeders' Cup moves to NBC and NBC Sports Network (formerly Versus):

Not much bad news, although I will miss Jeannine Edwards and Kenny Mayne. Edwards never mailed it in and the humorous Mayne loves the game. Also, not everyone has the NBC Sports Coverage as part of their cable or satellite subscriptions. With less overall viewers the TV ratings might actually be down this year with the change.

However there is plenty of Good:

We get to keep seeing Randy Moss, who worked this summer for NBC on their "Summer at Saratoga" broadcasts.

We also get better branding as NBC now has the complete Triple Crown Races, a bunch of derby prep races, Saratoga racing coverage and now the BC. Now we know when it comes to racing we can turn on NBC or NBC Sports Network throughout the year, instead of wondering what or where we can find the TV coverage. As NBC continues to grow the NBC Sports Network Channel, it seems they will build it around several sports including Hockey and Horse racing. No longer will it be the ugly stepchild that ESPN treated it like.

Breeders Cup Day 2

Day 1 is over. Friday seemed to be pretty formulaic, except of course for the two longshots in Musical Romance and Perfect Shirl. The crowd seemed muted, but I guess that is what you would expect one year Post Zenyatta.

Many seemed suprised at the favorite odds for Uncle Mo. But that is the name people recognize (sorry Goldikova fans) so that's what happens. I like Flat Out, Havre De Grace, Drosslemeyer, Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty in a Trifecta Box bet.

For the Juvenile I love Union Rags, but will take a stab with Daddy Long Legs and Speightscity to fill out my exotic tickets. Good Luck

Breeders Cup Betting Scandal-Can it Happen Again?

As the interwebs and Twitterverse become alive with betting strategies, workout results, and scheduling of Twitter meet ups, my mine wanders on to the Pick Six Breeders Cup betting scandal. After all it's been 9 years since 3 men attempted to cash in on the Pick 6 bet at the 2002 Breeders Cup by manipulating a weak link they found in the Autotote system used to process OTB bets. The plot was masterminded by Chris Harn, a senior computer programmer at Autotote. Harn was smart enough to figure out a weak link in how Autotote processed the Pick 6 live tickets and he and 2 others than used that weak link to cash in on a 3 million payout. Had the 43-1 longshot (Volponi) not won , making them the only ticket to cash in, they probably would have gotten away with it. The 3 were ultimately caught however, and plead guilty.

What's the chances of it happening again? Well with the increased use of Advance Wagering Accounts hackers are busy at work searching for a vulnerability in the various systems.

Hacking is alive and well-just ask Sony, who lost 3.2 billion when their PS3 console system was hacked exposing 77 million account holders earlier this year. Our schools are putting out hundreds of thousands of computer trained young people, many who are busy at work and better at finding weak entries into the various website and computer systems of corporations and businesses. While you are busy studying Past Performances and workout results someone much smarter than you is studying harder than you and it will result in a bigger payout than you.

Charlie Sheen the right choice to lead the Breeders Cup

Ray Paulick reports on the Paulick Report that Greg Avioli is resigning as president and chief executive officer of the Breeders’ Cup. Paulick lists 8 potential replacements. In a sidebar poll readers have chosen "none of the above" as their choice.

With such lack of enthusiasm for the usual suspects to replace Avioli, why not think outside the box. We need a winner and who sells winning better than Charlie Sheen.

The timing is perfect as Sheen is currently on the open market.

The Breeders Cup Twitter site has 4,323 followers. Why not turbo charge that number and grab Sheen as your CEO who just set a Guinesss Book World record for being the quickest person on Twitter to gain 1 million followers, doing so in 25 hours, 17 minutes.

Some may say Sheen is on a classic downward spiral but I would argue the man is a marketing genius and he is acting like a business minded positive forward thinking CEO, something the Breeders Cup needs. Are not these recent quotes from Sheen reminiscent of great leaders of the past, like Winston Churchill and Vince Lombardi. Breeders Cup, may you consider these quotes as part of Sheen's resume:

"You can't process me with a normal brain"

"I have Tigers blood and Adonis DNA"

"Defeat is not an option"

"Drug tests don't lie. Scoreboard doesn't lie"

"Plan Better applies to everything where an excuse now sits. Try it. U won't be wrong. EVER"

I believe his first decision will be to replace the confusing "Win and your In" slogan with his more concise classic line:

"Duh Winning!"

The Breeders Cup Also-Rans

With so many words now being written on the Thrilling finish Blame and Zenyatta gave us in the Classic , I don't know if I can add much, so let us take a look at some of the weekends also-rans as described in the Equibase Result Charts:

Mine That Bird (Dirt Mile, finished 1oth out of 12 starters):

Steadied at the start when Morning Line drifted out, raced three wide and was no factor.

This pretty much describes his year where he was never a factor in 4 starts. Mine That Bird was retired today.

Lookin at Lucky (Classic, finished 4th out of 12 starters):

within reach of the leaders the opening half while unhurried, advanced four wide past the three furlong marker, rallied in company with the winner approaching the stretch, battled that one to inside the final furlong and weakened

Part of my Tri-Box with Blame and Zenyatta, it looked for a minute that he would go with both of them all the way to the line, but he didn't do it and also allowed Fly Down to beat him by a neck at the finish for 3rd.

Quality Road (Classic, finished 12th out of 12 starters):

close up along the inside, moved off the rail on the second turn and stopped after six furlongs

Man did he stop.

BC Friday Winners and Losers

WINNERS:

Churchill Downs: Lights worked; Great Friday attendance of over 41,000
ESPN: Great video of the Borel-Castellano Fight; Jumped right on Life at Ten story
Longshot Bettors: All winners paid double digits with Shared Account paying $94
Bobby Flay: He made me $29 bucks and change on Real for More, plus he loves the sport

LOSERS:

Track Vets: Gotta do a better job of checking on Life at Ten
Borel: Can't say I blame him, but this will tarnish his good guy image
Chalk Players: You took a bath, only paying favorite was Awesome Feather

Saturday's Predicted Winners:

Sprint: Big Drama with Supreme Summit underneath
Juvenile: Uncle Mo with Biondetti underneath
Mile: Gio Ponti
Classic: Lookin at Lucky, Zenyatta, Blame

Breeders Cup 2010 Prop Bets

I direct you to the Thorofan "Handicapper's Corner" for a serious look at each BC race authored by many of us at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, including your truly where I took on the BC Sprint (love Big Drama).

You can also head over to the TBA Home Page and check out the Public Handicapping page for the BC races, where thus far 16 bloggers, writers, and tweeters have checked in with their picks (where 2 other 'cappers join me in picking Lookin at Lucky over the Superstar Queen Z).

For some less than serious bets, here are some Prop bets, culled from various gaming sites and my own curious mind:

How Many times will Zenyatta's name be mentioned in the race call-Over/Under: 8.5

How Many times will the ESPN TV crew mention Zenyatta's name during the entire 3:30-7:00 pm Saturday broadcast: Over/Under: 100

How Many times will ESPN mention BC Classic Longshot Pleasant Prince: Over/Under: 3

What will the Saturday ESPN TV rating be: Over/Under: 1.9

First adjective/expression to be used by winning BC Classic Jockey after the race:

"Amazing": 3-1
"She's the Greatest": 7-2
"Thrilling": 6-1
"He's the Best": 8-1
"This is the greatest feeling in the world": 10-1
"Unbelievable": 12-1
"I believed in my horse": 15-1
"I just would Like to thank God for all this": 20-1

Zenyatta on 60 Minutes = Web search buzz

If you are reading this blog, you most likely found your way to a TV set or computer Sunday evening to watch the 60 Minutes piece on Zenyatta.

It was purely a puff piece, nothing to be learned if you are already a fan of the great Mare. But the exposure of being on 60 Minutes cannot be discounted. Even in this age of a fractured television audience 60 minutes is a ratings juggernaut. More people watched her last night on CBS than did last year in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

A search on Google Trends at 9:00 pm Eastern time on Sunday, about an hour after the piece ran on Zenyatta, showed that she had zoomed all the way up to #14 on the Google "Hot Search" Chart for searches in the USA. The search "Breeders Cup 2010" zoomed all the way to #5, indicating the casual fan was intrigued enough by the Zenyatta piece to do a little research on this Breeders' Cup gig. The only sports themed search higher, at #3, was the search for "Brett Favre Injury". Below is the Google Trends search volume index graph for Sunday on Zenyatta:

BC Pre-Entries in-Now it gets serious

Now with all the Pre-Entries for the Breeders' Cup races in, the build up begins in earnest. Past Performances will be studied, trainer interviews will be published and Horse of the Year debates will continue.

The biggest of all is the return to dirt, The Breeders' Cup Classic, set to go off at 6:45 pm.

Looking at the field, if the great Zenyatta is to retire at 20-0, she will have earned it. Two horses have my interest at this moment. I have been reading alot about Blame, and I am intrigued by the amount of fans who absolutely stand by this horse and feel he will beat Queen Z. And what about Lookin at Lucky, who always runs, never quits, and looks really ready to go in this one.

Travers to BC Classic Drought Continues

It is now official, another year will pass without a horse winning both the Travers Stakes and the Breeders Cup Classic. Not that he was confirmed to even run in the BC Classic anyway, but it won't be Afleet Express as he will not run for the rest of the year after being injured. He was slated to run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup next on October 2nd.

No Travers winner has gone on to win the Breeders Cup Classic since its inception in 1984, despite great Travers Stakes winners in the past such as Point Given, Lemon Drop Kid and Easy Goer. In the last decade Medaglia d'Oro, Flower Alley and Bernardini all came close. The one to come the closest recently was when Bernardini lost a stretch duel to the great Invasor in 2006. Here is a look at the last 10 Travers winners and how they fared in the Breeders Cup Classic and if/how they raced as a 4 year old :

Horse	Year of Travers Win	BC Classic Finish	# of Wins as 4 year old
Point Given	2001	Did Not Run	None-Retired @ 3
Medaglia d'Oro	2002	2nd	3 (5 Races)
Ten Most Wanted	2003	8th	None (1 race)
Birdstone	2004	7th	None-Retired @ 3
Flower Alley	2005	2nd	None (3 races)
Bernardini	2006	2nd	None-Retired @ 3
Street Sense	2007	4th	None-Retired @ 3
Colonel John	2008	6th	1 (4 races)
Summer Bird	2009	4th	None-Retired @3
Afleet Express	2010	Will Not Run	??

Colonel John Retires

Colonel John, last seen finishing 5th in the 2009 Breeders' Cup has retired and will stand at Winstar farm, joining his sire Tiznow. I liked Colonel John in the Breeders' Cup and had him in my 4 horse box trifecta on Breeders Cup day with Zenyatta, Gio Ponti and Summer Bird. The Zenyatta stretch drive was thrilling, but I sure wished Summer Bird or Colonel John could have held on for 3rd instead of leaving me with a worthless betting slip.

I have an affinity for all Travers Stakes winners, so I continued to follow Colonel John after his win by a nose over Mambo in Seattle in the 2008 Travers Stakes. It seems so many of our 3 year old stars retire as a 3 year old, so it is always pleasing when a 2 time Grade 1 Stakes winner as a 3 year old (he also won the Santa Anita Derby in '08) goes on to run as a 4 year old.

He also won a race on all 3 surfaces earning a place in the Omnisurface Stars list winning a Grade 1 over dirt (Travers Stakes), a Grade 1 over synthetic (Santa Anita Derby) and a ungraded Stakes over grass (Wickerr Stakes) .

He retires with over 1.7 million in earnings with wins on both coasts and all 3 surfaces-not bad at all. Here he is winning the '08 Travers Stakes at the Spa.

2009 Breeders Cup TV Ratings Comparison

Select weekend overnight ratings for other Sports/events compared to the Breeders' Cup:

• NFL-Eagles/Cowboys-Sunday 8:15 pm-NBC: 14.3
• College Football*-Saturday 3:30 pm-CBS: 4.4
• College Football**-Saturday 3:30 pm-ABC: 3.8
• NASCAR-Sunday 3:15 pm-ABC : 3.1
• MMA (Strikeforce) 9:00 pm-CBS: 2.6
  
• College Football***-Saturday 2:30-NBC: 2.3
• Breeders' Cup-Saturday 1:30-ABC : 1.0
• Breeders' Cup-Saturday 3:30 ESPN: 0.9
• Bull Riding- Sunday 4:00 pm NBC: 0.8
• Figure Skating-Sunday 2:00 pm NBC: 0.8

*: LSU vs. Alabama
**: Ohio vs. Penn State
***: Navy vs. Notre Dame

The 2008 Breeders Cup rating on ABC was 1.3. Last years ESPN rating was 0.9.
Friday's ESPN2 rating was 0.3, same as the 2008 figure.

The rating figures above are all overnight ratings data, national final figures will be released later this week.

In a sign that maybe the world is really ending in 2012, Sunday's two-hour episode of Keeping Up with the Kardashians, featuring Lakers' Forward Lamar Odom's wedding drew a 3.2

Source: Nielsen Media Research

Zenyattá Mondatta

I'm a stickler for details particularly when reading articles from the mainstream media, prepared by highly skilled paid writers, broadcasters and paid editors (as oppossed to the unpaid unskilled writer of this blog). I heard mentioned twice yesterday on TVG that 2009 BC Classic winner Zenyatta was named after The Police album called Zenyatta. Later on ESPN one of the commentators said it was a Police song called Zenyatta. Now this morning I read in the Times Union (Albany, NY) the following written by Tim Wilken:

"We're over the moon," said Jerry Moss, co-founder of A&M Records and owner of Zenyatta.

Moss named Zenyatta for the album of the same name by the Police, a group that was under his label in the 1980s.

Of course there was never a album called "Zenyatta" by The Police. The Album was called Zenyattá Mondatta. No song named "Zenyatta" was ever released by The Police.

The Wierd, the Wacky and the Fun

The Breeders Cup is here, time to put away the complaints about the surface, the West Coast location, the 2 days, because it is all water under the bridge and we might as well watch the event, plunk down some money and win. This is the weekend to contact one of your offshore accounts and play the proposition bets like these supplied to me courtesy of the Bodog outfit.

Here is a sampling:

Which call will Trevor Denman use to describe Zenyatta's move?
"Jumps in at the quarter pole" 5/2
"Moving like a winner" 11/4
"They'd have to sprout wings" 4/1
" Poetry in Motion" 3/2
(If none of these phrases are used then all wagers will be no action.)

My pick: Stay away, I think you will here none of them used

If Zenyatta wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic will she break the Santa Anita track record for 1 1/4 miles?
Yes +150
No -200

My pick: NO-even if she wins don't see her breaking any track record


What will attendance for Saturday's Breeders’ Cup Races be?
Over/Under 51,000

My pick: Under, close but under.

What will the national television rating be of ESPN's Saturday broadcast of The Breeders’ Cup Classic be?
Over .7 -160
Under .7 +120

My pick: Over -last year did a 1.0, should get that many again with enough people curious to watch with Zenyatta running

Will the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic be bred in the United States?
Yes -400
No +300

My Pick: Yes-got a good shot with Summer Bird, Zenyatta, Mine That Bird, and even Colonel John

My overall advice: Don't get lost in the Stats this weekend, go with the gut and have fun

You can also check out the Thorougbred Bloggers Alliance (TBA) Home Page where yours truly and others have posted their selections in each race.

Tuning in to the Breeders Cup

With the 2 Day Breeders Cup at Santa Anita Park only days away I find myself still trying to muster up some excitement. I would guess I am not the only one that is looking more forward to the 2010 BC when it returns to dirt at Churchill Downs and than hopefully to Belmont Park in 2011.

The action starts on Friday and for those not actually out west ESPN2 will broadcast from 3:30 till 7:00 pm. On Saturday ABC has it from 1:30 -3:30 with ESPN taking over from 3:30 till 7:00 pm.

As for the TV ratings, look for the Friday rating to be flat compared to last years rating figure of 0.3. Last year on Saturday, ABC drew a 1.3 and ESPN drew a 1.0. I expect the ABC number to be the same or a tad lower than last year. I see ESPN drawing a tick higher than 1.0 as maybe some casual viewers tune in to see what the Zenyatta story is all about.

Ratings Source: The Nielsen Company

Another one off the List

Maybe it is me, but two weeks to the Breeders Cup yet it seems the anticipation for the event is not building much. Maybe it is the West Coast location again or maybe the number of "name" horses who will not be running in 2 weeks.With Macho Again off the trail, I think I can name more horses not going in the BC this year than those that are showing up.

Trainer Dallas Stewart did not want to go west with a horse not 100%, deciding to "do right by the horse". Don't ever think these trainers don't care about these animals. They are treated better than most pet dogs I have met, something I wish those outside the industry would understand better.

Now I am off to read some European blogs so I can learn about some of these horses.

Oh Well

As Sea the Stars is now retired, all pre-race speculation on whether he would run in the Breeders Cup Classic is now gone. So instead of talking about a potentially spectacular BC Classic field of Sea the Stars, Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, and Summer Bird, the air is out of the balloon and talk has shifted to who will win the Horse of the Year. So maybe no one is talking about the Breeders Cup, but the various horse racing channels of chatter have filled up with who the Horse of the Year should be.

People say horse racing is dying, but I see this type of debate as evidence it is not-sure seems like people care to me. I love these debates, it's like the Mays/DiMaggio/Snider debate, it just goes on and on depending on who you love and why.

What seemed a month ago to be a lock for Rachel Alexandra has tightened up with Summer Bird taking the Jockey Cup Gold Cup against older males and Zenyatta winning another one last week.

Over at the Paulick Report there is a Poll running asking who should win the HOTY if Zenyatta runs in the BC Classic and wins it? At last look 55% go with Zenyatta, 41% for RA and 4% for Summer Bird. Not much love for Summer Bird, but what if he were to win the BC Classic? And if someone else besides Zenyatta and Summer Bird win the the BC Classic, does Rachel still get the nod? As awesome as she is, if RA wins the HOTY she would do so without ever racing the "classic" distance of a 1 mile and a 1/4.

Survive and Advance

I'll never understand the logic of playing slots or the lottery as oppossed to sports gambling and gambling on the ponies-to me the latter is much more engaging, is a game of skill (with luck thrown in) and entertaining.

Yesterday was opening day at the Meadowlands Racetrack in Jersey and I survived Day one of the Meadowlands Survival Challenge. The premise is simple, pick one horse in each of pre-selected 3 races per race day, and you advance if you pick up a 1st, 2nd or 3rd in any race. If no one falls in the money, you are out.

Playing under the moniker of SaratogaSpa, I stand 1842 out of 4825 players. When it comes to betting, I pretty much play the NYRA tracks only, save for the Breeders Cup, the Triple Crown Series and an occasional odd bet thrown down once in a blue moon at other tracks. So, this contest will be a real challenge.

I love games like the Meadowlands Survival Challenge. and believe all racetracks should set up these "Survival" type games on their respective websites. It creates interest, draws people to the website everyday, and I am sure increases handle with real bets thrown in.

Between playing the challenge and playing/watching the great 11 race card at Belmont on Saturday, this will be a full horseplaying weekend. Head over to out TBA home page for all the Belmont entries, picks and PP information.

Young and Old

In the 3rd race at Belmont today, New York Bred and fan favorite Naughty New Yorker finished 6th and last in a New York Bred $65,000 race. It was his 50th start. We last saw him run at Saratoga in the Funny Cide Stakes on August 28th when he rallied for 2nd place. His 3 races before that in '09 have been clunkers. Maybe the 2nd place finish at the Spa, where he made his patented stretch run was his last hurrah??

On the younger front, while watching Jockey's last night on Animal Planet, they focused on the filly Stardom Bound, showing her win in the Santa Anita Oaks and than her 3rd place finish in the Ashland at Keeneland on April 4th. Well, she hasn't raced since. It's funny how horses like that, so promising, often fall off the radar and out of our racing memory. But she has had 4 workouts at Aqueduct and apparently is a possibility for the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic.

Speaking of the Breeders Cup, for news on who's running, and who's not, check out the Breeders Cup Divisional Blogs on NTRA.com written exclusively for the NTRA by my fellow members of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance.

Breeders Cup Gambles on Football

There has been mixed reaction to the decision to air Breeders Cup Qualifier races between a College Football doubleheader on ESPN on October 10th, 2009.

Depending on the schedule, viewers tuned into ESPN on that day will get the chance to see either Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret or Mine That Bird in the Goodwood Stakes.

Some may be offended at being sandwiched between the 2 games, but lets face it, Horse racing (besides the Triple Crown races) just can't draw the #'s that college football brings in for ESPN. Just this past Saturday for instance, USC's victory over Ohio State drew a 6.3 rating and 10.6 million viewers on ESPN. If the college football telecast on the 10th is only half that , say a 3.1, and say only half of that # stay to watch the racing between the games, that still is a rating of 1.5. By comparison last years "Filly Friday" drew a 0.3 rating and the Saturday portion of the Breeders Cup telecast on ESPN on Saturday drew a 1.0 rating.

Much as many people won't like the truncated short coverage, the potential viewing audience can't be ignored.

source: Neilsen Media Research