11 Reasons I'LL Have Another won't win the Triple Crown

There is a lot of talk about the number 11 going into the 2012 Belmont Stakes. Numerology fans rooting for I'll Have Another's bid for the Triple Crown point out that there have been 11 Triple Crown Winners, 11 horses have failed in the final leg at Belmont Stakes since Affirmed won the TC, and now I'll Have Another is in the 11 hole for the Belmont.

With that in mind here is 11 reasons why I'll Have Another will not be a Triple Crown horse:

1. Gallops only since the Preakness, no official workouts.

2 He really looked at the end of his tether going 1 1/4 in Kentucky Derby effort

3. Early pace will be strong enough to soften up I'll Have Another

4. Looks like a horse that will be decelerating last 1/8th a mile in a race where others (like Dullahan) will be accelerating

5. He's had 2 near perfect trips at Derby and Belmont-think he really get another?

6. Enough Bad Karma around Horses Connections to screw it up (i.e. Big Brown Factor)

7. Rookie Jockey

8. Big enough field for race riding against I'll have Another to be a factor

9. Great horses win the Triple Crown, not very good horses

10. If he loses, that eliminates all the "what will this win do for the game" articles. Enough of a reason alone for him to lose

11. The most important # is 11 and there are 11 other horse in the race and one of them will be the winner

UPDATE: I'LL Have Another was scratched on Friday with a Tendon Injury to his left front leg

Searching for the Oaks

I tried looking on the NBC Sports Network website to see if they would be covering the Kentucky Oaks. The website had plenty of Hockey news on the front page, and with they NBC covering the NHL, that makes sense. But I figured there would be a banner ad or something on the homepage which would link to the Kentucky Derby week coverage. After all it is only a week away. No such luck. There is a TV listings link which takes you to a page with the weeks TV listings for the NBC Channels. You can than hit another link to finally get to the page listing by specific day. I learned the coverage on Oaks day goes from 5-6 pm. I guess that means we just get the Oaks race and maybe one race before that. I don't know for sure as the website gives no further information. I am sure I could find out by checking out other sites or contacting the Churchill Downs Media office, but how many people, especially the casual fans, want to go through all those steps?

Horse Racing Coverage-Versus Good...SiriusXM Bad.

I enjoyed the Versus Television Coverage of the Kentucky Derby weekend and look forward to it again for their Preakness coverage. In addition to the coverage of the Black Eyed Susan on Friday and Undercard coverage on Saturday-remember after the NBC Coverage there is a 30 minute wrap up show on Versus from 6:30-7:00 pm.

On the radio side very disappointed to learn of the changes (cuts) on SiriusXM Satellite radio's horse racing coverage. Steve Byk's At the Races show was broadcast live from 9 am -12pm weekdays on Sirius Channel 93 (and Channel 210 On XM). When Steve signs off the channel picks up the audio feed of TVG. I make my living on the road driving from appointment to appointment with ample windshield time. When I am driving, I can't be looking at a computer, Smartphone or TV, so listening to Steve Byk on Satellite radio and his many regular guests (Steve Haskin, Gary West, Steve Davidowitz among others) and hearing the audio of TVG was a godsend.

However this week SiriusXM made a programming change, broadcasting only 1 hour of Byk's show (from 8-9am) and no TVG coverage at Noon. Instead at 9 am SiriusXM listeners tuning to the channel now hear sports talk from 3 ESPN owned radio programs- ESPN Chicago’s Waddle and Silvy, ESPN New York’s Mike Lupica Show and Michael Kay Show.

WTF....instead of hearing something I can't hear on regular radio, I now lose racing coverage for simulcasts of general sports talk shows that can be heard on regular AM radio. No word yet if SiriusXM will find another station for Steve Byk's show and TVG coverage. Of course, SiriusXM Executives felt that the middle of Triple Crown season would be the perfect time to cut racing coverage and replace Byk and TVG.

Wrap Up of the Kentucky Derby TV Coverage

The Good:

Production Values: The NBC Sports Production crew shined as the production value was first rate. And if you watched it in HD, it looked even better. If ever a sport was made for High Definition it is Horse Racing.

Broadcast Crew: On Derby Day Laffit Pincay III and Randy Moss handled the coverage on Versus while Tom Hammond and Gary Stevens took over on NBC. Always love the old pro Tom Hammond but much prefer Randy Moss over Gary Stevens. Randy Moss explains just enough for the casual viewer to understand without dumbing it down for the hardcore fan.

Hours of Coverage: No complaints here as Versus had the coverage from 11-4 pm, NBC from 4-7 pm and than Versus with post race coverage from 7-7:30 pm. 6 races including the Derby were shown on the 2 channels.

The Bad:

The segments featuring correspondent Maria Menounos: Like any red blooded male I enjoy seeing a short 30 seconds or so interview with Maria interviewing a hot chick, but it got quite campy when throughout the 2 broadcasts they paraded hot chick after hot chick telling us that they are betting on Pants on Fire because she has a female jockey.

The audio on the race call: The call by Larry Collmus was actually pretty good, that is if you could actually hear it. I only know what he said because I played it over a couple times on the NBC Sports Website. Collmus followed the golden rule of calling every horse in the field and their position by the first turn, he correctly noticed Animal Kingdom's move down the final stretch,called him the winner smoothly right before the line and than quickly called out the 2nd-4th finishers seconds after.

But let's be honest, who really heard the call? Watching live on NBC all I could hear was an annoying echo combination of Collmus and Churchill Tracks announcer Mark Johnson in the background. Try explaining to the casual fan why two announcers are calling the race at the same time with one slightly louder than the other.

Kentucky Derby Picks 2011

Well here we go, the day is here, the 2011 Kentucky Derby. For a field like this, with no superstar favorite, I look for value. I also look for who looks to be in the best form and looks to be peaking for the Derby. The worst value (now that Uncle Mo is scratched) will be Dialed In and Twice the Appeal. I first considered 9 horses: ArchArchArch, Twice the Appeal, Comma to the Top, Pants of Fire, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, Shackleford, Midnight Interlude and Nehro. I than looked at the running style, odds and workouts to narrow it down to a final four.

From the day Shackleford almost held off Dialed In in the Florida Derby, I just keep coming back to this horse, his ML odds are attractive, and he has looked great at Churchill this week and has a win on the track. Can he get the Mile and a Quarter? Who knows, but we can say that for he entire field. He is my pick to hold off the late chargers and win the Kentucky Derby.

Selections:

1. Shackleford
2. ArchArchArch
3. Mucho Macho Man
4. Nehro

Smooth Start for NBC Sports Derby Coverage

Day one of NBC Sports Coverage of the Kentucky Derby started today with a 2 hour slot on the NBC owned Versus channel. The first hour was a "Derby Classics" special featuring the NBC footage of the 2004 Derby won by Smarty Jones.

The second hour was the Derby Draw Coverage. The hosts for NBC/Versus were the venerable Tom Hammond, Gary Stevens and Randy Moss.

Production quality was high and the 3 hosts worked fine together. Based upon the opening introduction in the first hour it appears NBC will focus on the following 3 story lines:

1. Can Calvin Borel , winner of 3 of the last 4 Derby editions, win again on Twice the Appeal
2.Can Rosie Napravnik become the first female Jockey to win the Derby aboard Pants on Fire
3. the heart warming story of Trainer Kathy Ritvo and the Mucho Macho Man ownership group.

The Derby TV coverage draws in a huge amount of female viewers and NBC wisely chose 2 stories with female angles. The Borel story is also a no brainer as most casual fans only know one Jockey, and that is Borel.

Appears NBC is also wary of the Uncle Mo story line. With the chance probably 50/50 that Mo scratches, NBC is not taking the risk to plug a horse that might not even load in the gate.

Top 20 in the Derby

Wednesday at 5-6 pm you can watch the Derby Draw on Versus Network. Speaking of Versus, very happy to read on the Thoroughbred Times website that NBC & Versus will be broadcasting live racing from Saratoga this summer.

The 20 horses in has been in a state of flux- with Toby's Corner dropping out today, and Derby Kitten apparently in, most viewers will need the Derby post position draw to figure out who is even in this years Derby. I don't know about you, but interest has seemed muted this week. Probably a combination of lackluster preps, downfall of any favorites winning the preps, horses dropping out and big National and International news of interest. I don't think it would be a stretch that most fans couldn't name 10 of the horses running this year and even die-hards would have a tough time running off all 20 without peeking.

Versus Kentucky Derby Coverage?

I will be watching the Kentucky Derby next weekend with some casual racing fans. In order to help them with some pre-race background, I told them Versus network would have coverage during the week including the Derby Oaks, the Derby undercard other pre-derby activities including the Derby Draw.

Problem is, if I didn't tell them about the Versus coverage, how would they know?

The hardcore racing fan who reads all the blogs such as you and I know, but once again it seems racing is marketing in a vacuum. Versus is running ads on its network touting the coverage, but unless you are a NHL fan (Versus has been showing the NHL Playoffs) and actually have the network on, you don't see those ads.

Honestly, how many casual racing fans who don't follow the NHL know about the Versus racing coverage.

Versus as of last week had its own website at www.versus.com but now that address takes you to the parent network (NBC) website www.nbcsports.msnbc.com. There is a "Horse" tab at the top which I figured would take me to a page prominently listing the Versus racing coverage schedule for the week. Shouldn't the entire Versus week TV schedule be neatly listed front and center on this page? No such luck, the page has no mention at all of the Versus coverage. It instead features generic articles such as "Uncle Mo is a go for the Derby". Oh gee, thanks.

Mudder, Mudder, Father, Father

Is it too early to check out the long range weather forecast for the Kentucky Derby? It would seem so, but already I have seen some folks on Twitter with certainty predicting rain all day for Oaks day and Derby day. Seems too early for me, although definitely appears the Kentucky area is stuck in a wet pattern and it is expected to continue into next week.



For some reason it always seems to rain either the Friday or Saturday of Derby weekend, or at least I seem to remember it that way. But in actuality only 4 Derby races since 1990 have been run on a "sloppy" track. Here is the list with winners:

2010: Super Saver
2009: Mine That Bird
2004: Smarty Jones
1994: Go for Gin

Oh, one more thing if you are going this year, Umbrellas are listed as a "Banned Item" not allowed at Churchill Downs.

Photo Credit: The Weather Channel (www.weather.com)

The Power of Education

With Dialed In swallowing up the field in the Holy Bull Stakes we now have another interesting New York owner among the Derby chase leaders. Uncle Mo and owner Mike Repole garnered most of the early 2011 Derby talk but now another original New Yorker in Dialed In owner Robert LaPenta joins him.

They both followed the same template in achieving success and entering the horse ownership business. Both are native New Yorkers, Repole was born in Queens, LaPenta in Yonkers. Both came from humble beginnings and were the first generation in their families to attend college. LaPenta's father worked in a warehouse, Repole's father was a waiter. Both attended and commuted to nearby New York City Metro area catholic schools-LaPenta graduated from Iona College (New Rochelle, NY) and Repole from St. John's University.

Repole and LaPenta used their college degrees as a springboard into the business world, where both became highly successful. They than parlayed that success into horse ownership. Neither has forgotten their alma matter, in fact it would be rare to hear an Repole or LaPenta speak longer than a few minutes without acknowledging St John's and Iona College. LaPenta's silks are maroon and gold in honor of his alma mater. He also has donated 7 million to Iona. Both are big sports fans outside of racing, LaPenta with college basketball and Repole is a fanatical NY Mets baseball fan. His silks are blue and orange, in honor of the Mets. Repole was quoted yesterday in the NY Daily News as being interested in owning a piece of the Mets.

You still got to have a little bit of luck to get that Derby horse, but it was not luck that got them in a position to get that portential Derby winner, it was education.

24/7: The Road to the Kentucky Derby?

If you like the National Hockey League like I do and have access to HBO on your cable or satellite systems you had to love the HBO "24/7 Penguins/Capitals: Road to the Winter Classic" series.

The series was great, with candid interviews, nice game action editing and the dulcet narration of Liev Schreiber ( I could listen to this guy narrate the dictionary). In the past HBO has had success with the 24/7 shows on boxing and last year they did one on Jimmy Johnson leading up to the Daytona 500.

The template is fairly simple: an all-access look at the athletes and teams in a sport that leads to a climax.

What better climax to chronicle and lead up to than the Kentucky Derby?

The First Saturday in May movie by the Hennegan Brothers did this brilliantly but the movie was put out after the Derby outcome was known. This HBO series would be done in real time, creating a suspense and interest in the outcome as you invest time in the horse, trainers and owners being serialized. I think this would work great, profiling 4 or so horses and their connections as they lead up to Derby.

According to a NY Times article by Richard Sandomir, HBO is looking to take on a new sport. Sandomir suggests gold's Ryder Cup. Golf, Smolf, I say do the Derby.

Post Preakness Thoughts

I found it interesting that Donna Barton-Brothers of NBC noted while Super Saver was loading into the gate that he had lost weight since the Kentucky Derby.

I wondered if anyone in the media had reported in the week leading up to the race if Super Saver looked like he had lost weight. I searched the Daily Racing Form, Bloodhorse, all the blogs, the workout reports, etc and found nothing everywhere I searched. In fact most of what I read said he looked good and quoted how he was eating well. Maybe the best way to handicap is rely less on reporting and go to the Paddock yourself and look at the horse before you place your bet.

Looks like only one horse will race in all Triple Crown Races this year-Dublin. Imagine that we start with 20 horses in the Derby and only 1 can navigate through the whole series. How does that stimulate interest in the fan who starts his year following the road to the Derby?

Maybe if NBC gets all 3 races next year, they can do what was done in the past- line up a Sponsor and pony up money for any horse who enters all 3 and a larger bonus amount if they manage to win the Triple Crown. Will help the network with sustaining interest(ratings) and might entice a few owners/trainers to actually have a goal of running in all three.

2010 Kentucky Derby TV Ratings Analysis

The final Nielsen TV rating for the 2010 Kentucky Derby was 9.8 with 16.5 million viewers on NBC. For a comparison on how this compares with the 4 major Pro Sports here is a look at Television ratings for the finals in each sport. In order to accurately compare we took a game in the finals for each sport that was broadcast on a weekend.

Sport	Event	Network	Rating
NFL Football	Super Bowl (Saints v. Colts)	CBS	45.0
MLB Baseball	World Series Game 4 (Yanks v. Phillies	FOX	13.5
Horse Racing	2010 Kentucky Derby	NBC	9.8
NBA Basketball	’09 Finals Game 5 (Lakers v. Magic)	ABC	8.0
NHL Hockey	’09 Finals Game 5 (Penguins v. Red Wings)	NBC	2.4
Source: Nielsen Media Research

A big field, a chance to to put together a valve bet, a fun atmosphere, kinda makes it easy to watch.

Kentucky Derby Deputy Sheriff of Television Sports Events

Like the Super Bowl, year after year, the Kentucky Derby continues to grow as an "event" to watch.

The 2010 Kentucky Derby had a 10.3 overnight rating beating last years rating of 10.2. The 10.3 number is the highest-rated overnight for the Kentucky Derby since Lil E Tee won in 1992.

The Derby is properly marketed not as a sport, but as an event by NBC (Lets hope they get to broadcast the entire triple crown series once ABC is finished with the Belmont this year). It doesn't matter that the field looked weak on paper this year. Do you not watch the Super Bowl if you think the two teams are weak? Of course not.

The Super Bowl is the Sheriff of American Television sporting events, but the Derby serves well as the Deputy Sheriff.

Source: Nielsen Media Research

Over/Under Prop Bets Predictions

Here are some interesting Over/Under Proposition Bets with Predictions on the outcome

Proposition	Over/Under	Prediction
NBC Nielsen Rating	9.5	Take the Under (Last Year was 9.8)
How Many Horses will Tom Durkin Call as the Race Leader in the Derby	5	Expect a topsy turvy pace with many lead changes-Take the Over
How many times will Durkin mispronounce the Oaks Winner	3	Durkin called Rachel Alexandra “Alexander” 3 times during the '09 Oaks-This time he will be ready –Take the Under
How Many Horses will actually Start the Race	20	With Heavy rain possible, figure a late scratch or two-Take the Under
Finish Position of Lookin at Lucky	3.5	Maybe 4th or 5th-I’ll take the Over
Final Odds for Devil May Care	8-1	Expect the casual fan to bet the filly heavy-Take the Under
Attendance at Churchill	153,000	Possible lousy weather-Take the Under
Final Odds of Winning Horse	9-1	Just looks like a year that a 10-1 to 12-1 horse wins it-Take the Over

For the latest and last minute Derby News, Predictions, Odds, etc check out our home page
at tbablogs.com

Life is Good

Bill Finley profiles Dodgers Owner Joe Torre, part owner of Homeboykris, in the NY Times. Majority owner Louis Lazzinnaro is the owner of Sergio's restaurant, just outside Saratoga in Wilton and Spolini in Kew Gardens, Queens.

Torre a 9 time all star as a player with 4 World Series Rings on his finger as a Manager has also proven to be a success in the Horse Racing world. This includes his cut of Vineyard Haven, which Finley reports at 2.4 million, when the partners sold him as a 2 year old.

Finley also writes:

Torre said he owned parts of “six or seven horses,”

At some point in reaching success, the potential assets become hard to track. You know life is good when you can't remember exactly how many horses you have owned.

Check back with me on Wednesday

With Eskendereya now out of the Kentucky Derby, the Wednesday Derby Day Post Draw becomes particularly intriguing. Don't expect any announcement on if the filly Devil May Care will definitely run until after the Draw.

I suspect Todd Pletcher will enter Devil May Care in both the Oaks and the Derby, see what type of post position she gets in both and than go from there. With Eskendereya out, value goes down on everyone else. I was looking for some really nice horses at between 8-1 and 12-1. There will still be some value for Horse Racing Betting on the Derby, it will just take more work to find it with Esky now out.

Who will be in the final 20? Basically if Devil May Care is in, Jackson Bend is out. This of course assumes no other defections such as another Pletcher horse Interactiff. On the bench behind Jackson Bend if others defect are Backtalk followed by Make Music for Me.

The Derby has reverted to its traditional "blind draw" format and will be conducted at noon (EDT) on Wednesday, April 28, at Churchill Downs. It used to be covered live on ESPN, but in their quest to cover less and less racing each year, they dropped the coverage in 2009. For the best coverage of the Derby Draw coverage on Wednesday count on the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance homepage at tbablogs.com

Kentucky Derby Pre Race Coverage Ideas

About now NBC is mulling over story lines to run during the pre-race coverage of The Kentucky Derby.

In 2009 NBC had a piece on Trainer Larry Jones and Eight Belles as well as a feature piece on trainer Bob Baffert and his attempt to win his fourth Derby with Pioneerof the Nile (finished 2nd).

Television always loves the underdog story and last year NBC decided to focus on the one-horse barn of former high school principal Tom McCarthy with General Quarters, who he claimed for the bargain-basement price of $20,000. There was no feel good ending as GQ finished 10th.

It is always a calculated gamble as to what horses to feature, especially when you have a 20 horse field. 50-1 long shot winner Mine That Bird who paid $103.20 was not featured at all in any pre-race feature pieces.

One thing NBC can do for 2010 is just edit the piece they run every year on Trainer Todd Pletcher. This year the Toddster may have as many as 6 horses entering the Gate at Churchill. He had 5 in 2007 and they finished 6th, 8th, 9th, 18th and 20th (last). Here is a question for you-Will the 5 or 6 horses entered by Pletcher in 2010 average a finish higher than his 5 starters in 2007 which finished in an average of 12th place?

Last year NBC did a piece on Pletcher's attempt to break his 0-for-21 Derby slump with Dunkirk. He finished 11th.

Eskendereya-Hooked on Phonics

It looks like Eskendereya will be the odds on favorite come Kentucky Derby time after his impressive looking win in the Wood Memorial at the Big A. (By the way, nice turnout of 8,553 fans/horse players, about 3,500 more than I predicted would show up in my last post).

Over the next 4 weeks, two camps will develop-those that think Eskendereya is the real thing, and the other camp that will be eager to bet against the likely favorite.

Of course the easiest bet is that the name of the horse will be more mispronounced than not leading up to the Kentucky Derby.

For the record Eskendereya is pronounced S-Ken-DREY-uh

A month Away-what does the NY fan say?

With the Kentucky Derby now only a month away, and warm temperatures arriving this weekend in the Northeast, I wonder if enthusiasm will percolate for racing and this years run for the Triple Crown. At least on the east coast, with no clear cut beast this year amongst the tribe of Derby contenders, things seem a little muted.

But than again, maybe I am clouded by being a New York Resident, and stuck with daily morose headlines about racing in NY including the ongoing 9 year old VLT disgrace (Thank you Governor Pataki, Spitzer and Paterson and our State Legislature), the NYC OTB financial meltdown and diminishing purses at the 3 NYRA tracks.

It feels like a wet washcloth is constantly thrown upon the NY racing fan.

Tomorrow is one of the biggest days of the year at Aqueduct-the Wood Memorial. Unfortunately however, to go there almost seems like a cruel reminder of a track that should be filled and should have had slots installed years ago.

The only salvation will be the weather which promises to be a sunny day in the 70's (or maybe higher) so maybe that will be enough for 5000 or so fans to leave the political baggage behind and just come out to watch the horses run.